原油周报：主要机构纷纷看空，关注特普会-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintained a medium - to long - term bearish view on oil prices, supported by major institutions' reports on large supply and US inflation data [7] - Short - term market would focus on the Trump - Putin meeting, and a potential cyclone in the US Gulf could push up oil prices in the short term, providing better short - selling opportunities [7] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's view was to maintain a medium - to long - term bearish view, and thought short - term oil prices might be slightly undervalued [7] - This week, oil prices continued to decline. Concerns about Russian oil disturbances eased, and OPEC+ production increase pressure was magnified [7] - Key factors included weakening month - spreads, stable cracking, major institutions' reports on supply increase, OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of the Trump - Putin meeting [7] 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads were generally weak, with Western and Eastern markets showing signs of slowing supply - demand [9][11] - Global cracking was generally stable, with New York and Northwest Europe cracking Brent relatively weaker [13] - Gasoline cracking stabilized, but its upside was limited. Diesel cracking was weak, and its slowdown might impact the fundamentals [15] - Refining economy declined, especially in Asia, which might affect future refinery operating rates [17] - Global diesel inventories were low, mainly due to raw material issues, and were expected to improve before the autumn - winter consumption peak [20] - Major energy institutions' August reports showed that IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations, while OPEC continued to support production increase [22] - OPEC+ 8 - country production showed that most countries well - executed production plans, and many were over - producing [36][37] - The Trump - Putin meeting could cause market disturbances, but it was difficult to change the overall supply - dominated market pattern in the long run [40] - US macro - economic data indicated a potential stagflation situation, and core inflation was stubborn [42] - This year's North American hurricane activity was expected to be 60% above average, and a potential cyclone might affect oil production and refining [44] 03 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Provided data on crude oil futures and spot trends, including Brent and WTI [48] - Presented information on WTI and Brent crude oil positions, futures structures, month - spreads, cross - market futures and spot spreads [50][53][56] - Showed Saudi OSP data for different regions and different oil grades [72] - Provided data on refined product futures and spot prices, as well as cracking data in different regions [77][79][82] 04 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Presented data on global, non - OPEC, and OPEC crude oil supply, including production, capacity, and rig numbers [98][101][104] - Showed data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand [120][123][126] - Provided data on crude oil inventories in the US, OECD, and other regions [130][133][135] - Presented EIA balance sheet data, showing supply, consumption, and balance changes [150]