信用策略备忘录：防御策略的选项

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of August 8, the duration strategy was neutral, with medium - long - term duration portfolios performing slightly better than dumbbell - shaped ones. Long - term allocation sentiment was low, as the excess returns of ultra - long - term strategies were generally negative, and the willingness to extend duration was not strong [2][12]. - The trading duration of mainstream varieties was marginally shortened. As of August 10, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased, and some financial bonds were at low historical levels [3][16]. - As of August 11, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real - estate bonds were generally higher than other varieties. Most non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bond yields declined compared to the previous week, and more than half of financial bond yields decreased [4][20]. - The number of ultra - long - term credit bond transactions significantly declined. From August 4 - 8, 2025, the combined number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above dropped from 515 to 389. The yields of some bonds were changing, with the yield spread between the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds narrowing [5][24]. - The increase of local government bond indices was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local government bond indices rose 0.09% and 0.01% respectively, underperforming treasury bonds of the same term but outperforming ultra - long - term credit bonds [6][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Quantified Credit Strategy - As of August 8, the duration strategy was neutral. Medium - long - term duration portfolios had better performance, with return deviations from the benchmark within 4bp. The short - end sinking strategy of urban investment bonds had a negative deviation of over 5bp, and the excess returns of urban investment duration and dumbbell - shaped strategies were only 1.2bp and 0.2bp respectively. Ultra - long - term strategies had negative excess returns, especially for industrial and secondary ultra - long - term combinations, with readings below - 10bp [2][12]. 3.2 Variety Duration Tracking - As of August 10, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.00 years and 2.60 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.20 years, 3.48 years, and 3.13 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.54 years, 2.17 years, 2.71 years, and 1.37 years respectively, with some at low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a high historical quantile [3][16]. 3.3 Coupon Asset Heat Map - As of August 11, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real - estate bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bond yields mostly declined compared to the previous week. Among financial bonds, leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital replenishment tools, and securities sub - bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. More than half of financial bond yields decreased. The interest rates of general commercial financial bonds fluctuated within a narrow range (no more than 1.5BP), and the yields of some 1 - year - within urban and rural commercial bank perpetual bonds decreased significantly, with the yield of 1 - year - within urban commercial bank perpetual bonds dropping by more than 5BP [4][20]. 3.4 Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Micro - tracking - Since July, the lack of floating profits in ultra - long - term credit bonds and the difficulty in controlling drawdowns led to a significant decrease in trading demand. From August 4 - 8, 2025, the combined number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above decreased from 515 to 389. The average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds was marginally repaired, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds narrowed to 22bp, but the yields of over - 10 - year general credit bonds were still rising [5][24]. 3.5 Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local government bond indices rose 0.09% and 0.01% respectively, less than the increase of treasury bonds of the same term but better than the overall decline of ultra - long - term credit bonds [6][27].