沥青周报：继续承压-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Continue to bear pressure" [1] Core View of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Affected by rainy weather and capital constraints, it is difficult to have unexpected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to restrict the upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: This week, asphalt fluctuated weakly, showing a weaker pattern than crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply increased while demand decreased, and refinery inventory increased slightly, which is bearish but with limited marginal change. However, the social inventory, which has been difficult to destock, continued to rise. Considering that it is currently the traditional peak consumption season for asphalt, the slow destocking of social inventory is a significant bearish factor [7]. - This week's view: Asphalt demand remains mainly rigid. Next week, the impact of rainfall is expected to decrease, but capital constraints will make it difficult for overall demand to have unexpected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to suppress market sentiment. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile, weakly following the cost side [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - Last week's main view was that asphalt demand was mainly rigid, affected by weather and capital, with limited upside due to social inventory. This week, asphalt trended weakly compared to crude oil. Industry data showed increased supply, decreased demand, and rising social inventory. Next week, with less rainfall but capital constraints, asphalt is expected to remain volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7] 2. Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The section presents charts of asphalt futures trends, including the relationship between the main contract price, monthly spreads (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong. Data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. Data is from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - The section includes charts of asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and their 12 - month moving averages. Data is sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Charts display asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices. Data is from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Charts present refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. Data is from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The section shows the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong. Data is from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Charts display the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China. Data is from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The section presents the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China. Data is from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table lists refineries under maintenance, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end - time (mostly undetermined). The total annual production capacity of refineries under maintenance is 1886 tons, and the maintenance loss is 583,400 tons. Data is from Steel Union Data [33]