宏观周报：国内7月经济增速边际放缓-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The economic growth rate in China showed a marginal slowdown in July, but there's no need for excessive concern as a package of stable - economy policies are gradually taking effect, and more consumption - promotion policies are expected. The uncertainty of a September interest rate cut in the US remains, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [1]. Summary of Each Section 1. Domestic Economic Growth Slowdown in July 1.1 Economic Growth Slowdown in July - In July, economic data indicated a marginal slowdown in economic growth. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The marginal decline in the production side in July was affected by seasonal factors, the "anti - involution" policy, and extreme weather. The decline in consumption growth might be related to the early release of some demand by the trade - in policy, and the consumption confidence index has not significantly recovered. Investment in manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure all showed a marginal downward trend, with decreases of 1.3, 0.8, and 1.61 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the growth rates dropped to 6.2%, - 12%, and 9.29% [3]. 1.2 Decision - makers' Consumption - Promotion Policies - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans, and the Ministry of Finance and eight other departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy on Loans to Service - Industry Business Entities [7]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has a one - year implementation period, covering various consumer areas. It will promote the total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the specific effect is difficult to measure, and its signaling significance is relatively strong. The service - industry business entity loan interest subsidy policy provides a 1 - percentage - point annual interest subsidy for eligible service - industry business entities, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per household, mainly benefiting service - industry consumption [8]. 1.3 Uncertainty of a September Interest Rate Cut - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations, while the core CPI reached the highest level since February. The PPI in July showed an unexpected performance, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. Whether the US will cut interest rates in September remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [14]. 2. Key Economic Data and Events 2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the public solicitation of opinions on the Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China, the simplification of account - opening materials for overseas central - bank - type institutions, and the issuance of consumption - loan and service - industry business - entity loan interest subsidy policies [17]. - Key economic data: Since the start of the summer travel season, the national railway has sent 599 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. In July, automobile production and sales decreased by 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year. China's July financial data showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the new social financing in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [20]. 2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, Trump's team included several people in the list of candidates for the Fed Chair. The US debt exceeded 37 trillion US dollars for the first time. The US CPI in July was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a five - month high. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut, but the unexpected PPI data dampened the enthusiasm [21][23]. - In Europe, German government said European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky would talk to Trump, and the EU hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month [25]. - Regarding tariffs, Trump stated that gold would not be taxed, India hopes to continue bilateral trade negotiations, and Brazil has sued the US over tariff measures [26]. - Geopolitically, Iraq and Iran signed a security memorandum, Trump hopes to meet Putin again, and there are discussions about a possible new arms agreement between the US and Russia [27]. 3. Key Events and Data to be Focused on Next Week - Key events and data include the US 6 - month Treasury bill auction rate on August 18, China's central bank's 1 - year LPR on August 20, the eurozone CPI on August 20, the US initial jobless claims on August 21, and the US existing - home sales annualized month - on - month on August 21 [28]. 4. Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes No specific summary of asset price changes is provided in the text, only charts of domestic stock indexes, bond markets, and various commodity indexes are presented.