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7月经济数据点评:增长的锚点或还是出口
Changjiang Securities·2025-08-15 13:12

Economic Performance - In July, industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6%[7] Investment Trends - In July, fixed asset investment experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, driven by manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments dropping by 0.3%, 5.1%, and 17.0% respectively[8] - The construction installation engineering growth rate fell to -6.0% in July, indicating a downturn in the construction sector[8] Consumption Insights - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors declining[8] - Restaurant revenue growth remained low, with a slight increase to 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak consumer spending in the service sector[8] Export Dependency - The report emphasizes that export performance remains a critical anchor for growth, as domestic demand alone may not suffice to fill production gaps if exports weaken[8] - July saw a decline in export delivery value growth, dropping below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a weakening support for production from exports[8] Risk Factors - External economic volatility and uncertainty in policy responses pose risks to future growth, particularly if export trends continue to decline[8][9]