国投期货农产品日报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - 豆粕: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - 豆油: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - 标油: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - 菜粕: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - 菜油: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - 玉米: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - 生猪: ★☆☆, being bearish, with a driving force for price decline but limited market operability [1] - 鸡蛋: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is in the process of fermentation [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different price trends and investment opportunities. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by international trade policies, and others by weather and policy factors [2][3][6] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans: The short - term large number of auctions drags down the price. The price of domestic soybeans is relatively low in valuation, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties and policy guidance [2] - U.S. soybeans: The new - season soybeans have a reduced planting area but an increased yield per unit, and the ending inventory decreases year - on - year, which boosts the price. There is a risk of high temperature and low precipitation in some areas in the short term [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed series main contracts continue to be weak, and the rapeseed meal position increases significantly. The market has strong expectations for importing Australian rapeseed. If the trade between China and Australia grows rapidly after the new Australian rapeseed is launched in October, the rapeseed series futures prices may be under short - term pressure. The rapeseed series maintains a medium - term bullish view, but the futures prices may be under short - term pressure [2][5] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia is negotiating with the U.S. on zero - tariff palm oil imports. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation, and 5 million hectares of palm plantations are under review. The price difference between Malaysian 24 - degree palm oil and Argentine soybean oil has rapidly narrowed. The long - term biodiesel policy in the U.S. remains unchanged, but there is a risk of phased demand fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of position changes on price trends [3] Corn - The Dalian corn futures return to the downward trend. The U.S. corn continues to decline, with a good growth rate. The domestic corn supply remains high without policy guidance and under the background of the decline in U.S. corn prices. Corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6] Pigs - The spot price of pigs is stable but weak, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline. The government may provide support when the price drops to a certain range. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price rises [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable but strong, and the near - month futures price fluctuates at a low level. The trading logic of the egg futures market is still to reduce production capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot price, the game between peak - season demand and cold - storage egg release, and the progress of production capacity elimination [8]