国投期货贵金属日报-20250815

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Silver: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core View - Overnight, precious metals declined. The US released a 3.3% year-on-year PPI in July, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and the monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. The weekly initial jobless claims also remained low. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut was somewhat suppressed. With the focus on the US-Russia leaders' meeting today, market sentiment is volatile, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines regarding precious metals [1] Other Key Points - Trump said that if the meeting with Putin goes well, he will call Zelensky; if it's a bad meeting, he won't call anyone. This meeting lays the groundwork for a second meeting, and if issues can't be resolved, sanctions will be imposed. Western leaders are considering the possibility of hosting a tripartite summit among Russia, the US, and Ukraine in a European city [1] - Russian President Putin stated that the US is seeking an agreement acceptable to all parties, and it's possible to reach a new arms agreement with the US. The Kremlin has no plan to sign a results document for the Russia-US summit [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will retain gold as a store of value and is unlikely to re-evaluate the US gold reserve holdings. Bitcoin reserves are valued at about $15 - $20 billion, and the sale of Bitcoin holdings will stop. There's no call for the Fed to cut interest rates by 150 basis points, just pointing out that the model shows a lower neutral interest rate [2] - Fed's Daly believes that a significant rate cut next month doesn't seem appropriate; Fed's Musalem thinks a 50-basis-point rate cut doesn't match the current economic situation or data [2]