Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It points out that most products have a bearish short - term outlook, with supply - demand imbalances and technical indicators suggesting downward trends. The market trends of some products are also affected by the movement of crude oil and other factors [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: In September, the production increase is 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US leads to weak apparent demand, and the geopolitical situation has an impact. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and it's considered a small - scale repair after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure on the hourly level is at 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: In August, demand is still in the off - season and remains weak. The supply operation rate is maintained at a high level of around 77%, and new device production will increase supply pressure. Inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year, and supply - demand is weak [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although the rainy season in the production area has an impact, there is no extreme weather. Short - term improvement in downstream tire operation provides some support, but high tire inventory restricts further improvement. The medium - term fundamental driving force is downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was an upward movement in the afternoon today, testing the short - term pressure at 15950 but not breaking through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires has a weak medium - term outlook. The supply side has not fully resumed production after maintenance, and production is relatively high under the pressure of new production capacity, so it is bearish in the medium - term. It is supported in the short - term by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It followed the upward movement of rubber in the afternoon today, but the trading volume was weaker. The short - term pressure at 11950 for the 10 - contract remains effective. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The upstream PX devices are operating stably. The downstream terminal's operating rate has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but the short - term contradiction is not significant, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's movement is considered a rebound after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: The demand for polyester is weak. The supply - side operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year, and short - term inventory has shifted to accumulation. The contradiction is not obvious, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in][21]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, the downstream operating rate is weak. With the launch of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in all links of the industry chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. It is also necessary to pay attention to the movement of crude oil [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without changing the downward structure. The hourly - level pressure is at 7195, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on at 7090 first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The supply - side operating rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, reaching the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival volume in July was low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but it is expected to increase significantly in August. Downstream demand is differentiated, and port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years under high - supply pressure, so the fundamental driving force is weak [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume long - negative line after increasing positions, and it accelerated downward after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure has moved down to 2360 (09 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28]. PVC - Logic: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real - estate market and the off - season. Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. After a large - volume long - negative line with increased positions today, it remains on a downward path. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle and consider moving positions to the 01 contract [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upside space. It is necessary to pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, waiting to confirm the downward acceleration after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The increase in operating rate and the launch of new production capacity lead to large supply pressure. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level year - on - year, and inventory in ports and society continues to accumulate, so the supply - demand driving force is bearish [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, while the 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 7320 [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. The speculative demand in the glass market has weakened except for rigid demand. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on soda ash supply [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. It tested the short - term pressure today but failed and closed with a long upper shadow. The 09 and 01 contracts have different structures, with the 09 contract in a downward trend and the 01 contract in an upward trend. The short - term pressure of the 09 contract is at 1295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference at 1310 [37][39]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The demand side has a high operating rate for alumina, and the operating rate of non - aluminum demand for viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The 09 and 01 contracts still have different structures, with the 01 contract being stronger and the 09 contract being weaker. It oscillated on the disk today. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute support at 2510, with a stop - loss at today's high [41][43].
天富期货原油日内反弹，等待今晚特普会晤驱动
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-15 13:59