苹果产业风险管理日报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples with few trading points on the market. The opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are well - sold, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the market is mainly affected by low inventory, early - maturing apple prices and sales, as well as the boost from stable agricultural product consumption. However, with the fading of sentiment, apple prices have quickly declined and may remain range - bound in the near future [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [3] 3.2 Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When worried about a national apple bumper harvest and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a selling ratio of 50% and an entry range of 8300 - 8400. Also, sell call options (AP2510C8400) to collect premiums, with a selling ratio of 50% and an entry range of 50 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a new - crop apple shortage, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) to lock in procurement costs, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 8000 - 8050. Also, sell put options (AP2510P8100) to collect premiums, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 70 - 80 [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points. Early - maturing apples have a high opening price and are well - sold, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent market rise is affected by low inventory, early - maturing prices, sales, and consumption stability, but prices may range - bound after sentiment fades [4] 3.4利多解读 - The orchard inventory is at a historical low, with low initial inventory and faster de - stocking than in previous years, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention, and there may be a large reduction in production in the northwestern producing areas [5] 3.5利空解读 - The overall reduction in production is less than expected based on bagging data, and there is even an expected increase in production [6] - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply and low prices of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees impact apples, and high - priced fruits show weak consumption [6] 3.6 Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 15, 2025, different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) had different closing prices, daily and weekly price changes. Spot prices of some apple varieties remained unchanged, and the market profit was - 1123 with a - 5.71% daily change and 19.85% weekly change. The delivery theoretical price was 8600 with a 3.86% weekly change [7] 3.7 Apple Inventory - On August 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 46.01 with a weekly decrease of 7.58, and according to Zhuochuang was 46.13 with a weekly decrease of 5.07. The storage capacity ratios in different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) also changed. The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets remained unchanged [11]