固收点评：2025Q2货政报告，几点理解

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic tone is more positive, reducing the short - term urgency for policy intensification. The overseas environment shows positive changes but still requires caution, and domestic policies should enhance flexibility and predictability [1][6]. - Monetary policy maintains its stance, and liquidity will remain abundant. Central bank regulation will continue to be targeted, and the use of aggregate tools may be more cautious [3][15]. - The financial system's focus on serving the real economy is more prominent. Short - term capital fluctuations may have less signal significance, and the central bank is more focused on achieving multiple monetary policy goals [4][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Economy Steady with Progress, Overseas Environment with Prudent Optimism - Domestic Economy: The report's tone on the domestic economy is more positive. In H1 2025, the economy grew steadily with a GDP growth of 5.3%. The stock and bond markets' pricing of July economic data was limited. The positive tone may reduce the short - term need for policy intensification, and incremental policies need a longer observation period [6][13]. - Overseas Environment: The description of the overseas economic recovery process and tariff policies in the report has become less severe. The RMB exchange rate has certain resistance, and the impact of tariff games is gradually weakening. However, uncertainties such as Sino - US tariff games and the Fed's interest - rate cut path still exist, so vigilance cannot be relaxed [2][7]. 3.2 Policy Maintains Stance, Liquidity Abundance Re - confirmed - The moderately loose monetary policy emphasizes "implementation and refinement", indicating good implementation in H1 and more focus on policy effectiveness in H2. The central bank's regulation will continue to be targeted, and liquidity will remain abundant with interest rates likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. - The central bank pays attention to preventing financial risks, aiming to balance reducing bank liability costs and supporting the real economy. Aggregate tools may be used more cautiously, with more focus on improving frameworks and transmission mechanisms and reducing non - interest financing costs [3][15]. 3.3 Focus on Multiple Goals, Signal Significance of Short - term Capital Fluctuations May Weaken - The Q2 monetary policy report has four columns highlighting how finance supports the real economy, and structural monetary policy tools will continue to be the main means. - The central bank is more focused on achieving multiple monetary policy goals. Short - term capital fluctuations may be due to temporary supply - demand frictions, and the market should not over - interpret them [4][18].