事件点评：经济数据回落未超预期，股债配置或继续切换

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Despite the decline in economic and financial data in July 2025, a series of policies are expected to take effect, and the economy in the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable, in the second half of the economic L-shaped curve [7]. - The current deviation between the stock-bond market trend and economic data may follow a similar logic to the first quarter of 2023. Policy signals have led to an upward revision of expectations, resulting in rising stocks and falling bonds [6]. - In the bond market, the target for the 10-year Treasury yield in the second half of 2025 is expected to be 1.9 - 2.2%. If inflation normalizes, the reasonable range of the 10-year Treasury yield may also rise accordingly [7]. - In the equity market, considering the upward revision of economic expectations and the continuous upgrading of the technology industry, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year [7]. Summaries by Related Content Economic Data Overview - In July 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 387.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [3]. - In July 2025, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, the first decrease since August 2005 [4]. Market Performance - On August 15, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.2 BP, showing a trend of rising stocks and falling bonds [4]. Historical Comparison - In the first quarter of 2023, there was also a deviation between the fundamentals and market trends. The PMI in February - March reached 52.6% and 51.9% respectively, but the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and the 10-year Treasury yield declined [5]. Policy Impact - A series of policies since July 2025 have released positive signals, including promoting inflation recovery, boosting domestic investment, subsidizing childbirth, and promoting consumption and credit recovery [6].