投资和消费增速回落，风险偏好施压债市

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investment and consumption growth rates have declined, and risk appetite has put pressure on the bond market [2] - The performance of the bond market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, stock market trends, and monetary policy. If the stock market continues to be strong, it will suppress the bond market; if the stock market corrects, the bond market is likely to rebound [51] - The trading strategy for trading - type investments is to conduct band operations [52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Debt Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of national debt futures fell on Monday and Tuesday, rebounded on Wednesday, and continued to decline on Thursday and Friday with a slowing decline rate. The 30 - year national debt fell 1.48%, the 10 - year national debt fell 0.29%, the 5 - year national debt fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year national debt fell 0.02% [5] - As of August 15, compared with August 8, the national debt spot yield curve showed a bearish steepening, with an overall upward shift and a larger upward shift at the long - end. The 2 - year national debt yield remained flat at 1.40%, the 5 - year yield rose 4 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year yield rose 6 BP to 1.75%, and the 30 - year yield rose 9 BP to 2.05% [8] 3.2 Investment Data - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June; narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June; manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and down from 7.5% in January - June; real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and down from 11.2% in January - June [11] 3.3 Real Estate Market Data - From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, and the sales volume was 4,956.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%. The decline rates were both larger than those in January - June [13] - In July, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [17] - Since June, the decline rate of the national new housing sales area has accelerated. From August 1st to 14th, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 180,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [20] 3.4 Consumption Data - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3,878 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The month - on - month decline was 0.14% [23] - In July, most of the year - on - year growth rates of categories related to the trade - in policy slowed down compared with June. The growth rates of essential consumer goods remained stable, while the retail sales of automobiles decreased year - on - year [25] - From January to July, the total service retail sales increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of commodity retail sales was 4.9% year - on - year [27] - In July, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [29] 3.5 Industrial Data - In July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 6.3% [31] 3.6 Unemployment Data - In July, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [35] 3.7 Social Financing and Credit Data - In July, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, less than the market expectation of 1.41 trillion yuan but 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year [38] - In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, more than the market expectation of a 15 - billion - yuan decrease and 310 billion yuan more than the same period last year [41] - At the end of July, the balance of M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the balance of M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year [43] 3.8 Other Market Data - This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose slightly and then declined, and the short - term inflation pressure was limited [45] - This week, DR007 only increased on Friday. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was slightly higher than last week [48]