经济数据点评：7月经济，弱复苏下的结构性压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in July 2025 was generally below expectations, with the three major indicators declining in resonance, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable industrial production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", indicating insufficient domestic effective demand [1][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data include seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy [2][8] - For the bond market, the economic data in July confirmed the fundamental main line of "weak demand + low inflation", and the risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, as well as the effect of policies like fiscal interest subsidies on private - sector financing demand [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Economic Data: Structural Pressures under Weak Recovery - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, that of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 3.2%, and that of manufacturing investment was 6.2% [3][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data are seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy. The resilience of external demand in July exceeded expectations, but there was still uncertainty in external demand in the second half of the year [2][8][9] 3.2 Industrial Production Maintains Resilience, High - tech Chain Continues to Lead - In July, industrial production still had resilience. The year - on - year growth rate of added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in July was 5.8%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][11] - In terms of industries, the year - on - year growth rates of the ferrous metal processing and transportation equipment industries in July increased significantly compared with the previous month, while those of the automobile, metal products, and food industries decreased. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.3% year - on - year, respectively 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large - scale industrial added value [15] - In terms of specific products, the output growth rates of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles were remarkable, with year - on - year growth rates of 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% respectively [15] 3.3 Consumption Growth Slows, Policy Dividend Effect Weakens Marginally - In July, the growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. The total retail sales of social consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, the lowest increase this year and lower than market expectations [17] - On one hand, the driving effect of subsidy policies weakened. The year - on - year growth rates of home appliances, automobiles, furniture, and cultural office supplies supported by policies declined significantly compared with the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of automobiles turned negative. On the other hand, the weak catering consumption reflected insufficient consumer confidence. The year - on - year growth rate of catering revenue above the quota increased slightly to 1.1%, still at a relatively low level this year [4][20] - Recently, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with the central finance bearing 90%. The effect of this policy on credit scale and social retail sales growth remains to be observed [4][22] 3.4 Manufacturing Stabilizes, Infrastructure Supports, Real Estate Hits Bottom - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The investment structure showed a three - track operation pattern of "manufacturing stabilization, infrastructure support, and real estate drag" [23] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2%. The "Two New" work promoted the rapid growth of equipment purchase investment. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of investment in equipment, tools, and utensils was 15.2%, 13.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation might decline, and the demand for entity credit was still insufficient [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 3.2%. The construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects remained relatively fast, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment was expected to play a "ballast stone" role in the third quarter. However, the high - temperature and rainy weather in July affected outdoor construction and dragged down the growth rate of infrastructure investment [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, continuing to be deeply adjusted. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened. In the second half of the year, real estate relaxation policies still needed to be actively implemented, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering housing loan interest rates, reducing down - payment ratios, and increasing real estate acquisitions [26][27]