豆粕期货日报-20250816

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of the USDA August supply - demand report and the rising weather risk premium, the market sentiment is high. The CBOT soybean futures have risen continuously, supporting the domestic soybean meal market price. The increase in the cost of imported soybeans also provides strong support. However, the current abundant supply of imported soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills, and high inventory pressure of soybean meal may limit the increase in the soybean meal market price. It is expected that the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, mainly with interval adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On August 14, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract first rose and then fell, closing at 3157 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. The trading volume for the day was 1,347,343 lots, and the open interest was 1,990,701 lots [2]. - Variety Price: The soybean meal futures contracts generally rose slightly throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,655,321 lots, a decrease of 25,411 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Quotation: On August 14, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions declined slightly. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 2990 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3090 yuan, unchanged; in Rizhao it was 3010 yuan, down 10 yuan; and in Dongguan it was 2980 yuan, down 10 yuan [7][8]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 lots to 10,925 lots, with the increase mainly from Dongguan Fuyuan with 2,000 new lots [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry News: Last week (August 3 - August 9), Brazil exported 2.2402 million tons of soybeans and 284,000 tons of soybean meal. This week (August 10 - August 16), it plans to export 2.34 million tons of soybeans and 63,900 tons of soybean meal. The import cost of soybeans continued to rise, with US soybeans up 41 yuan/ton, reaching a 3 - month high; Brazilian soybeans up 19 yuan/ton, breaking a more than 1 - year high; and Argentine soybeans up 17 yuan/ton, hitting a 7 - month high [9]. - Basis Data: A basis trend chart is provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [10].