银河期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250816

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is strongly influenced by capital behavior, with small rumors spreading. Although it shows short - term resistance, its fundamentals are weak, with increasing supply, stable rigid demand, and a trend of inventory accumulation. The glass market has stable daily production, but the actual demand growth rate is limited, and the inventory is increasing. The overall commodity market is dominated by weak reality and strong expectations, with intensified divergence between long and short positions [14][23] - For soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with attention to logical transformation and event - driven factors. For glass, it is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term. The report also suggests paying attention to the entry opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01 [14][23] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Soda Ash 1.1 Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons (2.2%). The production increase was due to the increased load of some devices such as Jiangsu Shilian, Shaanxi Xinghua, etc., and the decrease was due to the maintenance of Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry. It is expected that the weekly production next week will be 780,000 tons, and large - scale maintenance will start in September, but the premium and scale of maintenance are limited [7] - The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined - soda process was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton. The cost of anthracite increased slightly, the coal price continued to rise, the soda ash price center moved down, and the profit weakened [7] 1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 733,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.5%. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 443,000 tons (a 17.1% increase), and that for light soda ash was 289,000 tons (a 2.5% decrease). The daily output of float glass was stable, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 1,680 tons, with more kiln restarts recently [10] - Manufacturers are fulfilling previous orders, and the short - term replenishment willingness of middle and downstream enterprises is not strong. The spot price has been reduced, and the market's available spot has increased [10] 1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,894,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (1.5%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash increased by 42,000 tons, and that of heavy soda ash decreased by 14,000 tons [13] - Middle - stream: The social inventory increased by 3.9% to 467,000 tons, and the growth rate of social inventory slowed down. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,192 [13] - Downstream: The soda ash inventory days of some float glass enterprises decreased, while the inventory days including goods to be delivered increased in some cases [13] 1.4 Market Performance and Strategy - The soda ash market showed a strong trend independent of its fundamentals and the black sector, driven by capital behavior. The supply increased, the rigid demand was stable, and the inventory was accumulating. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01. Options should be on the sidelines [14] 2. Glass 2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 159,600 tons, remaining stable week - on - week, with 223 production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels decreased [17] - As the futures price fell, the social inventory was released, and some downstream enterprises mainly consumed their own inventory. The supply was sufficient, the upstream inventory increased, and enterprises reduced prices [17] 2.2 Demand - As the futures price fell, the supply from term traders was released, negatively affecting the spot market. Both middle - stream and downstream inventories were relatively sufficient, and the short - term replenishment willingness was not strong. The deep - processing orders did not improve significantly [20] - As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. The deep - processing profit was still low [20] 2.3 Market Performance and Strategy - The glass market showed a fluctuating trend this week, with prices following the soda ash market. The spot price reduction was mainly reflected in the reverse - spread monthly difference. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01. Options should be on the sidelines [23]