Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, and short - term market sentiment was volatile. As the previous price reached a phased high, the factors driving further price increases weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand. Short - term iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that for single - side trading, it will be in a volatile state, and high - level hedging of spot is the main approach; for arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Core Logic: Mainstream iron ore shipments were stable. Due to the low base in the same period last year, there was a certain year - on - year increase from the third quarter to date this year, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down. Non - mainstream ore shipments remained at a high level year - on - year in July and August, contributing incremental shipments. On the demand side, the growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure investment weakened in July. The demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the recent demand for manufacturing steel weakened rapidly month - on - month, suppressing terminal steel demand. Overseas iron element consumption increased by 1.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, and overseas steel demand remained at a relatively high level [3]. - Trading Strategy: - Single - side: Iron ore prices will fluctuate, and high - level hedging of spot is the main strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Supply Analysis - Global Iron Ore Shipment: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 3025 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%/460 tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 1754 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%/560 tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 726 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%/800 tons. This week, global shipments decreased by 15 tons month - on - month and increased by 82 tons year - on - year [8][9]. - Mainstream Ore Shipment in Australia and Brazil: Since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 1.8%/330 tons year - on - year, BHP's by 0.6%/110 tons, FMG's have increased by 5.8%/660 tons, and VALE's by 0.4%/60 tons. Rio Tinto's shipment recovery is slow. The third - quarter global iron ore shipments are in a seasonal off - season, and the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [11]. - Non - mainstream Ore Shipment: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 544 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%/210 tons. Australia's non - mainstream weekly shipments decreased by 9.4%/770 tons year - on - year, while Brazil's increased by 13%/740 tons. In July, non - mainstream ore shipments remained at a high level year - on - year, contributing nearly 400 tons of incremental shipments, and it is expected to continue to contribute in August [19]. Iron Ore Inventory Analysis - Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased by more than 100 tons month - on - month, the congestion decreased rapidly, the total inventory of iron ore in steel mills increased slightly month - on - month, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in China remained basically unchanged month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore has been basically flat in the past month, and the total inventory of terminal steel has continued to rise month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total domestic iron element inventory. The current iron ore supply - demand fundamentals have weakened slightly [28]. Terminal Demand Analysis - Domestic Demand: From July 2025 to date, domestic pig iron production increased by 2%/230 tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2.6%/360 tons. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 6.6%/390 tons year - on - year, and the non - building materials apparent demand increased by 2%/140 tons. The domestic crude steel consumption decreased by 2%/250 tons year - on - year (excluding exports). The demand for manufacturing steel has weakened rapidly month - on - month, and the demand for construction steel has continued to be weak [30][31]. - Overseas Demand: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and India's crude steel production increased by 9.2% year - on - year. Overseas steel demand remained at a relatively high level, and it is expected that India's steel demand will continue to contribute a large increment in the third quarter [31].
铁矿周报:终端需求走弱,矿价高位回落-20250816
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-16 12:13