7月数据跟踪：粗钢产量持续“数字”回落

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - In July, crude steel production decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a daily average production drop of 7.3% month-on-month, indicating a continuous decline in production intensity among steel mills. However, the reliability of this data is questionable, as the profitability of the black metal smelting and rolling industry has significantly improved, reaching 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1370% [2] - Strong growth in both domestic and foreign demand was observed, with net steel exports from January to July reaching 64.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The contribution of exports to the economy is estimated at 220 billion USD, or approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing about 2% to economic growth [3] - If the "anti-involution" policy is effectively implemented in the second half of the year, it is expected to accelerate the industry's return to profitability. The report recommends several companies that are undervalued and have strong safety margins, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others [4] Summary by Sections Production Data - In July, crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year, with a daily average of 2.57 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3%. From January to July, crude steel production totaled 594.47 million tons, down 3.1% year-on-year [8] - In July, pig iron production was 70.80 million tons, down 1.4% year-on-year, while steel production was 122.95 million tons, up 6.4% year-on-year [8] Export and Import Data - In July, steel exports reached 9.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, while imports were 452,000 tons, down 10.5% year-on-year. From January to July, steel imports totaled 3.48 million tons, down 15.7% year-on-year [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying stocks of companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, which are expected to benefit from various economic recovery measures and industry trends [4][9]