转债周度跟踪：凸性继续释放，转债涨幅超正股-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is currently in a state of high sentiment. With the support of valuation, convertible bonds have outperformed underlying stocks, and the median price, 100 - yuan valuation, and convertible bond index are all at historical highs. The market shows a differentiated structure. For low - volatility fundamental and mid - to high - priced convertible bonds, trading may be better than allocation due to potential price - fluctuation risks. For high - elasticity fundamental and high - priced convertible bonds, they are the most elastic variety in the market, and their space is expected to expand further. Currently, with the continuous rise of risk preference, small - cap and low - rated convertible bonds may become the key areas for capital speculation, while high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds can focus on downward - revision games [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - Low - volatility and Mid - to High - priced Convertible Bonds: Since 2025, the imbalance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market has led to strong performance of traditional low - priced convertible bonds. The median price of the whole market has been rising, and the premium rate of low - parity convertible bonds is at a historical high. Due to the lack of elasticity in the underlying stock fundamentals and strong call expectations, there may be price - fluctuation risks at high premium rates, so trading is preferred over allocation [4][5]. - High - elasticity and High - priced Convertible Bonds: These are traditional high - parity and high - priced convertible bonds with high volatility. In Q2 2025, their performance was relatively limited, and the valuation was not high, with strong call risks being a significant constraint. However, the underlying stock fundamentals are relatively good, and the support logic is clear. Since Q3, their elasticity has gradually been released. Even if a call notice is issued, the impact on the bond price is expected to be controllable in the context of sufficient liabilities. Currently, with the continuous rise of risk preference, small - cap and low - rated convertible bonds may be the focus of capital speculation, and high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds can focus on downward - revision games to find potential trading opportunities [4][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, both convertible bonds and underlying stocks continued to rise, and the increase of convertible bonds exceeded that of underlying stocks. The valuation of convertible bonds was extremely strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds was 35%, with a single - week increase of 1.21%, and the latest quantile was at the 93.40% percentile since 2017. The valuation of both high - and low - rated convertible bonds increased by more than 1% this week. After removing outliers, the 100 - yuan valuations of high - and low - rated convertible bonds were both at extreme levels since 2017 [4][7]. - The convertible bond yield to maturity reached a new low since 2017, reporting - 6.27%. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 42.08%, 43.32%, and - 6.27% respectively, with changes of - 0.27%, + 3.96%, and - 0.67% compared to last week, and their current quantile levels were at the 62.10%, 77.20%, and 0.00% percentiles since 2017 [4][9]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, convertible bonds such as Kaineng, Yaoshi, and Gaoce issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 24 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not been delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of these non - delisted convertible bonds is 4.4 billion yuan. There are currently 41 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 17 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Also, 6 convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [4][14]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Tianye and Huayang convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and Jinneng, Lanfan, and Tian 23 announced downward revisions. Among them, Jinneng and Tian 23 convertible bonds were revised downward to the maximum, while Lanfan was not. As of the latest data, 136 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 23 cannot be revised downward due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 27 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [4][20]. 3.3.3 Put Option - No convertible bonds issued put - option announcements this week. As of the latest data, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 4 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 2 are in the non - downward - revision interval and 2 are accumulating downward - revision days [4][22]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Kaizhong convertible bonds issued an issuance announcement. As of now, Weidao and Kaizhong convertible bonds have been issued but have not yet determined their listing dates. There are currently 5 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress, with a total issuance scale of 5.4 billion yuan, and 4 in the listing - committee approval progress, with a total issuance scale of 9 billion yuan [4][24].