甲醇周报：供增需弱，价格破位下跌-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is currently characterized by high supply and weak demand, with the price breaking through support levels and falling. The short - term weakness is difficult to reverse, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The futures price has broken through support levels and fallen. The current situation is high supply and weak demand, with port inventories accelerating accumulation. Traditional downstream industries are generally in a loss - making state, and port MTO plants have shut down. Methanol has become a weak variety in the sector, with the basis weakening and the inter - monthly spread at a low level in the same period [11]. - Supply: The domestic operating rate has gradually bottomed out and is expected to increase marginally, reaching 82.4% this week, a 0.97% increase from the previous week. Overseas operating rates have returned to seasonal highs [11]. - Demand: Port olefin plants are operating at a low load, and the domestic olefin operating rate has declined slightly. Traditional demand operating rates are gradually rising, and improvement is expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [11]. - Fundamentals: The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period, and the current situation remains weak [11]. - Valuation: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level. Port MTO plants have shut down, and port olefin profits are continuously rising. The price ratio between methanol and related varieties is at a medium - to - high level, indicating that methanol is not undervalued [11]. - Inventory: Port inventories are 1.0218 million tons, a 96,300 - ton increase from the previous week. Enterprise inventories are 295,600 tons, a 1,900 - ton increase from the previous week, and are at a low level in recent years [11]. - Market Logic: Methanol's own fundamentals are weak. Even though coal prices are strong, it is still difficult to break out of the downward pattern, with short - term supply increasing and demand weak [11]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Basis and Spread: The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period [20]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a high level compared to the same period [38]. - Inventory: Port inventories are increasing, and enterprise inventories are at a low level in recent years [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - Capacity: In 2025, new methanol production capacity in the northwest region amounts to 7.45 million tons, including projects from Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Gansu Liuhua, Xinjiang Zhongtai New Materials, etc [50]. - Operating Rate: The domestic methanol operating rate has gradually bottomed out and is rising, and the overseas operating rate has returned to seasonal highs [11][52]. - Import Volume: Import volume is expected to increase gradually as overseas plants operate at high rates [11]. - Arrival Volume: Data on arrival volumes in different regions are presented in relevant charts [65][68]. - International Price Difference: Various international price differences and domestic freight rates are analyzed through charts [71][76]. 3.5. Demand Side - Demand Forecast: Consumption and end - of - period inventory data are presented in relevant charts [80]. - Methanol - to - Olefins: The olefin operating rate has declined slightly, and the profitability of related plants has shown some changes. There are also analyses of relevant spreads [83][93]. - PP Production Profits: Production profits of different PP production processes are presented in relevant charts [91]. - Downstream Industries: The operating rates and profits of downstream industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and dichloromethane, as well as downstream inventories, are analyzed through charts [104][107]. - Related Product Price Ratios: Price ratios between methanol and related products are presented in relevant charts [111]. 3.6. Options - Related - Methanol Options: Data on option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility are presented in relevant charts [115][117]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Industry Chain and Research Framework: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map are provided [120][122].