鸡蛋周报：等反弹后抛空-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Newly laid eggs are continuously increasing, and the limited number of culled chickens results in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices in the peak season are weaker than expected, and funds have created a premium in the futures market. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short - term, the futures market may fluctuate due to the expected rebound of spot prices and the volatility risk from high positions at low levels. In the medium - term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, so the focus should be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic egg prices showed mixed trends, with red eggs slightly stronger and pink eggs still weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited due to supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.4 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, while in Guantao it decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. In the sales areas, the price in Huilongguan increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.25 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan it decreased by 0.19 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. Supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium - and small - sized eggs, and large - sized eggs are increasing. Cold - storage eggs are also being sold. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [11][20]. - Chicken Rearing and Culling: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, as breeding losses increase and seasonal factors come into play, the number of new chicken rearing has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [11][33]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [11]. - Demand Side: After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [11]. - Trading Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell the 09, 10, and 11 contracts after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months. There is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Movement: Domestic egg prices showed mixed trends last week. Red eggs were slightly stronger, and pink eggs were weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited by supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [20]. - Basis and Spread: After the spot price strengthened, it lost momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under pressure, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - Culled Chicken Price: Previously, more old chickens were culled, and there was over - culling in some areas, causing the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens to decline significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - Egg - Laying Hen Rearing: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, with increasing breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - Culled Chicken Culling: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [36]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has eased, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, the inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [56].