美联储的“政治危机”与美债风险的“重估”

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Political Crisis - The Federal Reserve is at the center of a political crisis influenced by Trump's efforts to reshape the deep government, raising questions about its ability to manipulate interest rates[2] - As of August 9, the top three candidates for the "shadow Fed chair" are Waller (26.6%), Hassett (13.7%), and Warsh (7.9%) based on market expectations[2][3] - Trump's potential influence includes nominating a "dovish" shadow chair and possibly replacing Powell if he does not remain[3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Manipulation - The Fed can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, as rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors[4] - The neutral interest rate in the U.S. has risen from around 0% to approximately 1-1.5%, indicating that the Fed's rate cuts may have a terminal point around 300-350 basis points[4] - By July 2025, the Fed's target for the federal funds rate should be between 3.8% and 6.3%, with the current rate at 4.3%, suggesting no restrictive policy at present[4] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Monetary Coordination - The Fed's ability to cut rates depends more on fiscal consolidation than on board changes, as government deleveraging can lower the neutral rate and support the Fed's anti-inflation efforts[5] - Historically, a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lead to a 12-35 basis point decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield[5] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs and implications[5]