7月经济数据点评：供需双承压，但债市仍谨慎

Group 1 - The report highlights that consumer spending has weakened since peaking in May-June 2025, with retail sales growth for January to July 2025 at 4.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period, significantly impacted by the restaurant sector, which saw a growth rate of 3.8% [2][3] - Industrial value-added growth for July 2025 was 6.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from June, with production in "anti-involution" sectors like automotive and photovoltaic experiencing notable decreases [3][4] - Fixed asset investment growth has accelerated its decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% in July 2025, down 1.2 percentage points from June, driven by weak performance in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a weakening in pricing based on fundamentals, with the yield curve flattening, indicating pessimistic expectations for the economy despite weak demand in the real sector [3] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will range between 1.65% and 1.80% in August and September 2025, with conditions for further yield declines being more stringent [3] - The report notes that August is a peak supply month for government bonds, and if market adjustments worsen, there is a possibility that the central bank may restart bond purchases [3]