Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is stable, while in the Northeast it is weak. The purchase price of oil mills is stable. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased, the spot price of peanut meal is strong, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The profit of oil mill pressing has slightly increased. Downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanut oil in oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory has also declined but remains at a high level. This week, the price of October peanuts fluctuated at the bottom after rising and then falling due to the influence of oils and fats. The spread between October and January contracts is stable. Some spring peanuts have been listed, but the demand is weak. The planting area of new - crop peanuts has increased, and the planting cost has decreased. The spot price of peanuts continues to fall, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [6]. - Recommended strategies include trying the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8400, establishing short positions for October peanuts above 8200, and conducting reverse arbitrage for the October - January spread when it is high [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option strategy: Try selling the pk510 - C - 8400 option strategy [5]. - Futures strategy: Establish short positions for October peanuts above 8200, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the October - January spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Price: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, the price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of general peanuts has declined. In domestic markets, the price of peanuts in Henan is stable, while in the Northeast it has fallen. The general peanut trading is average, and the price has dropped. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7500 - 7650 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of Sudanese peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, also stable compared to last week [9][11]. - Domestic Demand: The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased. As of August 15th, the weekly operating rate of peanut oil mills is 5.26%, a 0.15% increase from the previous week. The arrival volume of oil mills is 0.02 million tons, a decrease. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 89,500 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 39,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [15]. - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has slightly increased, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The pressing profit of oil mills is 124 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan increase from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,800 yuan/ton, also stable. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is strong, reaching 3270 yuan/ton this week, a 10 - yuan increase from last week [19]. - Basis and Spread: The spread between October and January peanuts is stable at around 140 yuan. The spot - futures price difference has declined. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [24]. - Peanut Import: In June, the import volume of peanut kernels was 27,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 94,000 tons, a 76% decrease compared to the same period last year. In June, the export volume of peanut kernels was 1000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 78,000 tons, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. In June, the import volume of peanut oil was 39,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 182,000 tons, a 33% increase compared to last year [29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Peanut Price: Charts show the historical price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the purchase price of oil mills, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [10]. - Domestic Demand: Charts display the historical operating rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut kernel inventory, and the pressing volume of oil mills [14]. - Pressing Profit: Charts present the historical pressing profit of oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [18]. - Basis and Spread: Charts show the historical basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts, and the spread trends between January - April, April - October, and October - January contracts [23][39]. - Peanut Import: Charts and data illustrate the historical import and export volumes of peanut kernels and peanut oil, as well as the year - on - year changes in cumulative import volumes [28][42]. - Downstream: Charts display the historical operating rate of pressing plants, the peanut pressing volume, and the peanut oil inventory in oil mills [52]. - Peanut Oil Import: Charts and data show the historical import price and cumulative import volume of peanut oil, and the import volume of peanut oil from different countries [56][59]. - Price Differences: Charts present the historical price differences between soybean meal and peanut meal, peanut oil and soybean oil, peanut oil and sunflower oil, and peanut oil and rapeseed oil [61][66].
花生现货偏弱，盘面底部震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-16 13:53