矿山停产，锂价强势上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - side: Mine shutdowns have led to a significant increase in lithium salt and lithium ore prices. Australian suppliers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices, with the latest auction price reaching $1005 per ton, equivalent to a lithium salt price of 85,000 yuan per ton. Although the output of spodumene processing has increased significantly, the inventory of imported ore is being digested quickly, and there may be a short - term supply gap in September. [6] - Demand - side: Energy storage orders remain strong, and power orders are also stronger than expected. The monthly sequential growth rate of demand from August to October exceeds 3% each month. The proportion of cathode factories' customer - supplied materials has decreased, forcing them to purchase in the spot market. Based on the expectation of price increases, there may be hoarding demand during price corrections. [6] - Market: The basis has strengthened to par or a slight discount. When the futures market rises sharply, it provides certain arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot, which also provides the motivation to register warehouse receipts and reduces the spot liquidity. [6] - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips as the upward elasticity and driving force of lithium prices are in place, and the upward trend is maintained. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options of the 2511 contract. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand Analysis - New Energy Vehicles - In China, from January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3%. However, the sales in July decreased sequentially. The expected wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is 15.48 million units, with a growth of 27%. The power cell output in July also declined following the vehicle sales. [20][21] - Globally, from January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million units. In the US, the cumulative sales from January to June 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000 units. In Europe, the cumulative sales from January to June 2025 increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million units. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million units. [22][25] - Energy Storage Market - In June 2025, the newly commissioned installed capacity of domestic new energy storage projects was 2.33GW/5.63GWh, with year - on - year and sequential declines. In the first half of 2025, the national new energy storage installed capacity increased by about 29%/32% compared to the end of 2024. The main reason for the good performance of domestic energy storage orders is the "rush to export" demand. From January to July, China's energy storage cell production reached 208GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 61%. [26][30] - Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling in August - The production scheduling of 6 battery enterprises in August was 110.3GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 43% and a sequential increase of 1%. The production scheduling of 6 cathode enterprises was 147,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 16% and a sequential increase of 3%. It is expected that the orders will increase by more than 3% sequentially each month from September to November. [31][34] 3.2 Supply Analysis - Carbonate Lithium Zhoudu Production - Affected by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo mine, Jiangxi smelters have reduced production. High prices have stimulated an increase in processing output and imports. This week's output increased slightly sequentially, but the inventory has started to decline. It is expected that the weekly output will start to decrease next week. The price of ore has risen following the lithium salt price, and mines are taking the opportunity to hold up prices. The latest SQM auction price of SC6 lithium ore has reached $1005 per ton. [35][38] - Monthly Production of Carbonate Lithium by Raw Material in China - The production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials such as salt lakes, spodumene, lepidolite, and recycling shows different trends over time. [39] - Supply Growth of Carbonate Lithium in July and Slight Sequential Increase in August - From January to June 2025, China's carbonate lithium import volume was 1.17 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to July, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased by 3% year - on - year to 1.34 million tons. It is expected that the domestic lithium salt import volume will also increase sequentially from August to September. [42][48] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory - Supply - Demand Balance Estimation of Carbonate Lithium - The report analyzes the supply - demand balance of carbonate lithium, but specific data and trends are presented in relevant charts and descriptions. [49] - Carbonate Lithium Inventory Turned to De - stocking This Week - The inventory of carbonate lithium has started to decline this week. The proportion of customer - supplied materials has decreased, and spot purchases have increased significantly. The inventory in smelters has been transferred to downstream. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts have increased recently, but far behind the growth of positions. [51][56]