电解铝：海外降息预期反复，铝库存渐至峰值支撑铝价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - end is relatively bullish before the September Fed interest - rate meeting, and the bottom support for domestic and overseas aluminum prices is becoming more obvious. It is advisable to be bullish after price corrections. For alumina, market speculation sentiment has cooled, and prices are returning to the weak fundamental situation, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate weakly above 3000 - 3100 yuan [2][77]. - In the aluminum market, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slowly increasing, while demand shows seasonal weakness but may be driven by photovoltaic and automotive sectors. Aluminum inventory is approaching its peak, which may support prices. In the alumina market, raw material supply is affected by multiple factors, production capacity has marginal changes, and the import window is opened periodically [2][77]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Outlook for Aluminum Macro - The US July PPI soared, reducing traders' bets on a Fed rate cut in September. The US is negotiating tariff agreements, and the tariff issue between the US and India has attracted attention in the aluminum market. The Russian and US presidents are scheduled to hold a meeting [2]. Industrial Supply - In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to increase to around 4430 tons, mainly from the复产 of Anshun Aluminum Plant and Baise Yinhai. Some replacement and transfer projects have production plans, and new replacement capacities are expected to be put into production in 2026 - 2027. South32 expects a production decline at Mozal in the 2026 fiscal year [2]. Industrial Demand - Apparent demand shows seasonal weakness. In July 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. In August, the increase in photovoltaic module production may drive aluminum consumption, and the automotive industry also contributes to aluminum demand [2]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the total inventory of aluminum ingots and billets increased slightly, with the increase rate slowing down. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to reach its peak soon. LME aluminum inventory has an impact on price support [2]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Before the September Fed meeting, the non - ferrous metal market is mainly influenced by interest - rate cut and inflation expectations. It is advisable to be bullish on aluminum prices after corrections. Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread when aluminum ingot inventory starts to decline. For derivatives, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Strategy Outlook for Alumina Raw Material End - Domestic bauxite mines in Shanxi and Henan are affected by multiple factors and have difficulty releasing production capacity in the short term. Guinea's bauxite shipments recovered in the first week of August, but the supply of spot goods decreased. The current bauxite supply is sufficient in absolute terms, and the spot price is expected to remain firm [77]. Supply End - As of mid - August, the national alumina operating capacity increased, but the actual production decreased marginally. Some alumina enterprises in Guangxi and Shanxi are affected by maintenance and ore supply, and the southern import window is opened [77]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [77]. Other Aspects Aluminum Market - LME market performance, aluminum ingot import and export profits, and speculative fund net positions are presented through charts [4][6][8]. - Domestic and overseas aluminum inventory performance, including social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME inventory, is shown in charts [15][16][18]. - Price differences, including regional price differences, basis differences, and monthly spread differences, are presented in charts [20][22][27]. - Aluminum primary processing product processing fees, such as aluminum rod and aluminum pole processing fees, are shown in charts [32][36]. - The recycled aluminum alloy market has supply - demand imbalances, with tight supply and weak demand. There are opportunities for arbitrage [38]. - The supply - side situation of electrolytic aluminum includes production volume, profit, and capacity change expectations, both domestically and overseas [45][47][49]. - Aluminum processing enterprise start - up rates show a mild recovery, with different trends in various sub - sectors [54]. - Demand from downstream industries such as photovoltaic, automotive, real estate, power, home appliances, and exports has different performance characteristics [57][60][63][66][69][72]. Alumina Market - Bauxite resource tax rates and the comparison of different mines are presented [83][85]. - Alumina profit has increased, and different regions have different profit levels [95][98][99]. - Alumina supply and demand are in a state of theoretical excess, and production capacity and output have marginal changes [100][102]. - The alumina import window is opened periodically, and net imports may decline slightly [103][109]. - Alumina social inventory has a marginal decline, and the supply of spot goods is expected to improve [110][113][117]. - Alumina spot trading is in a state of discount and light trading volume [118]. - Alumina overseas and domestic price trends and transaction prices are presented [119][120][123]. - Alumina warehouse receipts have increased significantly [124].