产量持续增加，注意调整风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The alloy market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. However, the recent rapid increase in supply and limited further growth in demand suggest potential weakening in the supply - demand balance. Iron alloys can be considered as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [5]. - As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance is expected to diverge. Products with actual production cuts and policy support will likely remain strong, while others will be driven more by their own fundamentals [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise this week, and the operating rates in recent weeks have shown an accelerating upward trend [5]. - Demand: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills slightly increased, but the apparent demand for steel, especially for rebar, decreased more than seasonally. Combined with the poor macro data in July, there is a risk of a decline in the demand side [5]. - Cost: The electricity price remained stable this week, and the price of port manganese ore increased slightly [5]. - Market sentiment: "Anti - involution" leading varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal are oscillating at high levels. As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance will diverge. Iron alloys' supply - demand is currently stable but may face pressure from the accelerating supply increase [5]. Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Due to the recent accelerating increase in supply, iron alloys can be used as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [6]. - Arbitrage: When the basis is low, cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [6]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.03 tons (accounting for about 70% of the total demand), unchanged from the previous week. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [11]. - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. The national ferrosilicon production (weekly supply) was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The national silicomanganese production (99% of weekly supply) was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 tons [12]. - Inventory: In the week of August 15th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [13]. Cost and Profit - Silicomanganese: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5899 yuan/ton with a profit of - 99 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 53.8%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5938 yuan/ton with a profit of - 38 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.1%. In Guangxi, the production cost was 6432 yuan/ton with a profit of - 532 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.1%. In Guizhou, the production cost was 6178 yuan/ton with a profit of - 308 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.2% [30]. - Ferrosilicon: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5499 yuan/ton with a profit of - 49 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 29.1%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5352 yuan/ton with a profit of 148 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 27.1%. In Shaanxi, the production cost was 5564 yuan/ton with a profit of - 114 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.1%. In Qinghai, the production cost was 5421 yuan/ton with a profit of 79 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.3%. In Gansu, the production cost was 5573 yuan/ton with a profit of - 73 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 9.5% [41]. Other Data - Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export: Data on the monthly net import of manganese ore and the monthly net export of ferrosilicon are presented, showing trends over different time periods [69]. - Metal Magnesium Demand: Information on the price of magnesium in Fugu and the cumulative production of magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi is provided [71]. - Silicon - Iron Inventory: Data on the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills are given, including regional breakdowns [75]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: Information on the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants is presented [78].