Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15] Core Viewpoints - The current bottom - up movement of the crude oil cost side will continuously suppress the asphalt valuation ratio. With the approaching of the US hurricane season in September, the small hurricane is expected to provide additional support to the cost - side crude oil. Although the rebound of crude oil prices is limited due to political expectations, the seasonal off - season of asphalt is expected to cause double contraction, thus continuing to suppress the valuation ratio. The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15]. - Overall, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the implementation of OPEC's gradual production increase, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. The downward movement of asphalt valuation in the second half of the year is likely. The current low start - up of independent refineries leaves little room for further decline. The return of major refinery capacity and the seasonal valuation off - season will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation and the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The price trend of the asphalt main contract is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. The current cost side of crude oil has bottomed out and is rising, which will suppress the asphalt valuation ratio [13][14][15]. - Outlook and Strategy: The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio. The mid - term impact factors show that in terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and the start - up of major refineries is expected to recover, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation; in terms of demand, the start - up rate has improved slightly, but overall demand is expected to be flat; in terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the oscillation center is expected to move down [15][16]. 2. Spot - Futures Market - Spot Price: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][26][28]. - Basis Trend: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [30][31]. - Term Structure: It presents the term structure and price spreads of different asphalt contracts [33][35][37]. 3. Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [43][44]. - Imports: It presents the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from different regions, as well as the cumulative import volume from different countries [46][50][55]. - Valuation Ratio and Refinery Profit: It shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent, and the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [58][61][62]. 4. Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It includes the inventory of domestic factories, social inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [69][72][74]. - Warehouse Receipts: It shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [77][78]. 5. Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It presents the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese sample enterprises and sample enterprises in Shandong, East China, and North China regions [87][88][91]. - Downstream Start - up Rate: It shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [94][95][98]. - Highway Investment: It presents the cumulative value of highway construction investment, the monthly value and year - on - year change of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation public fiscal expenditure [100][101]. - Road - Related Machinery: It shows the monthly sales volume and working hours of road - related machinery such as road rollers and excavators, as well as the cumulative value of highway construction investment [104][105]. - Related Consumption: It presents the completion of fixed - asset investment and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [107]. 6. Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [110][113][115]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: It includes exploration and extraction links [120][121]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into several types, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By usage, it can be divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used in waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [122][124].
沥青周报：估值回落-20250816
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-16 14:31