国债周报：需求偏弱，宽货币延续-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in July showed a slight slowdown, with external demand better than domestic demand. The "anti - involution" concept boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. Exports may face pressure in the future due to the over - drafting of the front - loading effect and the rising base in the second half of the year. The strong market expectation of a US interest rate cut in September is beneficial to the liquidity of the financial market [10]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the expected continuation of loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. In the long - run, the bond market should be considered for long - position trading on dips [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year; the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.7% higher than the previous year; from January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. The suspension of 24% of the additional tariffs on US imports continued for 90 days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The market expects a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September [10][11][12]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [13]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.74%, up 5.02 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.04%, up 7.70 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 6.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - Summary: The economic data in the first half of the year remained resilient under tariff disturbances. In July, economic and financial data were generally lower than expected, and domestic demand needs to be boosted. Exports may face pressure in the future. The central bank will maintain a loose attitude towards funds. In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, but does not provide specific analysis conclusions [18][21][24][27]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations [44]. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [44]. - Price Index: In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, CPI increased by 0.4%, core CPI increased by 0.4%, and PPI decreased by 0.2% [53]. - Exports: In July, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21.67% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 16.59% year - on - year [56]. - Industrial Added Value: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7%, down from 6.8% in the previous month [59]. - Retail Sales: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [59]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%. Real estate investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [62]. - Real Estate: In July, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year. The completion data decreased by 29.46% year - on - year, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened [65][68]. - Foreign Economy - US: In the second quarter, the US GDP increased by 1.99% year - on - year and 3.0% quarter - on - quarter. In July, the non - seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year. In June, durable goods orders increased by 10.93% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8 [71][74][77]. - EU: In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [77]. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 [80]. 3.4. Liquidity - In July, the M1 growth rate was 5.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.8%. The social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, mainly from government bond issuance. Both corporate and household credit weakened. The MLF balance in July was 525 billion yuan, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 711.8 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan [85][91]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.58%, 1.74%, and 2.04% respectively, with weekly increases of 0.22 BP, 3.14 BP, 5.02 BP, and 7.70 BP respectively. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 6.00 BP week - on - week [94]. - Exchange Rates: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided in the report, only the presentation of exchange rate data [102].