贵金属周报：关注杰克逊霍尔央行年会-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, precious metal prices were relatively weak due to unexpected US inflation data. The market is closely watching Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If his remarks are dovish, it is recommended to go long on gold and silver at low prices. The expected trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - Market Performance: Affected by unexpected US inflation data, gold and silver prices were weak this week. Shanghai gold fell 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 0.80% to 9204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 2.21% to 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.27% to 38.02 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.85 [11]. - Inflation Data: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected. These data suggest the impact of Trump's tariff policy on US prices, and Fed officials' views on inflation are divided [11]. - Policy Expectations: The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September with a probability of 92.1%, and another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will see the announcement of the new Fed chair, which may further boost rate - cut expectations [11]. - Technical Analysis: The Shanghai gold index is approaching the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The Shanghai silver index is forming a high - level diamond pattern, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities around the Jackson Hole meeting [13][14]. 3.2 Market Review - Price and Position Changes: Gold and silver prices were weak, and both domestic and foreign gold and silver positions declined. As of August 15, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.95% to 423,600 lots, and COMEX gold decreased by 0.78% to 446,200 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.16% to 761,000 lots, and COMEX silver decreased by 3% to 156,400 lots [27][29][32]. - ETF Holdings: As of August 15, the total holding of gold ETFs was 2185.3 tons, and the total holding of foreign silver ETFs was 27,406 tons [37]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - Interest Rate Trends: The yield curve of US Treasury bonds and inflation expectations are presented through various charts. The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows that the Treasury General Account on the liability side replenished 5.115 billion US dollars, and the reverse repurchase balance decreased by 4.367 billion US dollars [49][52][58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - Inflation Data: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected [63]. - Employment Data: As of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, lower than expected [66]. - PMI and PPI: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, both lower than expected [69]. - Housing Data: In June, the annualized number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, and the annualized number of building permits was 1.397 million, both higher than expected [72]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - Base Spreads: The base spreads of gold and silver between TD and SHFE are presented through charts, and the spreads of both gold and silver have increased [75][77]. - Internal and External Spreads: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also presented through charts [81][83]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventories: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through charts [88][91]. - Gold Inventories: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through charts [93].