油脂周报：棕榈油供需偏紧，叙事延续-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats overall closed higher. The bullish factors such as the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's imposition of temporary margins on Canadian rapeseed stimulated the market. However, the actual weak consumption and rumors of Australian rapeseed purchases led to profit - taking. The high - frequency data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from August 1st to 15th increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. The strong pattern of oils and fats is difficult to change in the short term [11]. - The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons. India may have started the restocking process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will show a slight downward trend, the export willingness of palm oil will increase after the production rises, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected US biodiesel policy draft, the limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expected increase in oil production, the relatively high near - term production of palm oil in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, and the adjustment of demand by major importing countries [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Overview: The three major oils and fats closed higher this week. The bullish factors included the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's measures against Canadian rapeseed. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil exports in August was good. The supply - demand of Southeast Asian palm oil was basically balanced, and the observable oil inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The price of domestic rapeseed oil was also pushed up by the tension in China - Canada trade relations [11]. - International Oils and Fats: The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the US will increase the industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. It is expected that Canada's rapeseed production will increase by 100,000 tons to 19.25 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India may start the restocking process [11]. - Domestic Oils and Fats: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, the export willingness of palm oil will increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - Viewpoint Summary: Fundamentally, multiple factors support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, the current high valuation restricts the upside space [11][12][13]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly. No relevant content is provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2510, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 10, and the basis of 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [18][20][23][26] 3.3. Supply Side - Palm Oil Production and Export: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, and the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32][33] - Palm Production Area Weather: The report provides charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm production areas, as well as charts related to the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][36] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Overall Inventory: The report presents the charts of the total domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [42] - Inventory of Different Oils: It shows the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed in coastal areas, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysian and Indonesian producing areas [44][46][48][49] 3.5. Cost Side - Palm Oil Cost: The report presents the charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [53] - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost: It shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed [56] 3.6. Demand Side - Oils and Fats Transaction: The report presents the charts of the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [59] - Biodiesel Profit: It shows the charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [61]