聚酯周报：终端改善，等待旺季到来-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the weekly performance of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, polyester, and terminal products. It points out that the market is in a state of waiting for the peak season. Although there are some improvements in the terminal, the overall upstream valuation is still suppressed by the weak performance of the terminal and polyester. It also suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: Last week, the price fluctuated. The supply side saw an increase in load, with some domestic and overseas device changes. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load, but the overall load in August decreased. The inventory continued to decline in July - August. The PXN fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11]. - PTA: The price also fluctuated last week. The supply side had an increase in load, but the overall load in August decreased due to more maintenance. The new device put into production increased the supply pressure. The demand side saw an increase in polyester load, and the terminal showed some improvement. The inventory continued to accumulate. The processing fee rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the peak season [12]. - MEG: The price fluctuated last week. The supply side had a decrease in load, mainly due to the decline in ethylene - based load. The subsequent load is expected to increase. The demand side is similar to PTA. The inventory in ports and downstream factories increased. The valuation is relatively high, and there is a downward pressure on the short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis rebounded, and the spread was weak. The trading volume was small, and the open interest was stable [32][35]. - PTA: The basis was continuously weak, and the spread fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest were at a relatively high level [42]. - MEG: The trading volume and open interest were at a low level [60]. 3.3 p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - Supply: The device load increased. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes in operation status. The new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [72][74]. - Import: The import volume in June was stable [77]. - Inventory: The inventory continued to decline in June [85]. - Cost - profit: The PXN fluctuated, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending was weak, and the US - South Korea aromatics spread was also weak [89][96][105]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - Supply: The new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 has been or will be put into production. The load in June decreased, and the export volume was low [129][134]. - Inventory: The inventory increased from a low level [137]. - Profit - valuation: The processing fee was repaired [140]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Supply: The Zhengdakai Phase I was put into production. The ethylene device had an accident, and the load of the syngas - based device was at a historical high. The new capacity of Ningxia Kunpeng Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and BASF will be put into production in the future [144][148]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased this week [158]. - Cost: The coal price decreased, and the ethylene price increased slightly [168]. - Profit: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New long - filament devices were put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated. The operating rate increased, and the export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of long - filament was neutral, the inventory of staple fiber increased, and the absolute inventory of bottle chips was high. The profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [186][189][192][198][201][212]. - Terminal: The operating rate increased. The orders of textile enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, and the raw material inventory increased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing decreased, and the export was weak [214][222][226].