Core Viewpoints - The current market concerns do not pose significant downside risks, with expectations for supply-demand improvements in 2026 remaining intact despite a macroeconomic downturn in the second half of 2025 [2][4][5] - The structural mainline related to the bull market narrative has yet to establish a trend, but this will not hinder the performance of Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025, as certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing still show potential [2][5][6] - The impact of US-China tariffs is expected to diminish over time, with any adjustments likely to result in only temporary fluctuations in the A-share market [2][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Concerns - The macroeconomic combination in the second half of 2025 is not expected to affect the anticipated supply-demand improvement in 2026, as the key verification period for demand may not occur within 2025 [4][5] - The structural mainline directly associated with the bull market narrative has not yet established a trend, but this is not expected to impact the performance of Q4 2025 positively compared to Q3 2025 [5][6] - The potential for a bull market remains, with the possibility of a strong performance in Q4 2025 driven by early positioning ahead of the 14th Five-Year Plan and ongoing policy adjustments [6][7] Section 2: Investment Focus - Attention should be directed towards sectors such as brokerage, insurance, military industry, and rare earths, with pharmaceuticals and overseas computing expected to maintain momentum [2][9] - The focus on structural investments should consider high market share manufacturing sectors in China, which may form price alliances to support domestic and international pricing [9][10] - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a high-value opportunity compared to A-shares, with recent net purchases indicating a shift in investor interest [10][12]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望（25/08/11-25/08/16）：反证牛市：回应三个市场担忧
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-16 14:50