生猪周报：区间思路-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - continuous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot price. The futures market has shown an overall trend of rising and then falling due to news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. With the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the position of the fat - standard price difference and whether there will be hoarding at that time are crucial. The market may fall into a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, focus on low - buying, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for the far - month contracts, adopt the reverse - spread strategy [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly and then fell, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The average weight remained stable during the week, with local weight - reduction continuing and some signs of hoarding and reluctant selling. The fat - standard price difference rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume increased month - on - month. Specifically, the average price in Henan rose by 0.1 yuan to 13.9 yuan/kg, reaching a maximum of 14 yuan/kg during the week; the average price in Sichuan rose by 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, with a maximum of 13.66 yuan/kg; the average price in Guangdong fell by 0.44 yuan to 14.96 yuan/kg. The weight - reduction behavior of the breeding side is approaching the end, the slaughter rhythm has slowed down, and there is a slight warming space for the demand side with the cooling in the north. It is expected that pig prices will be stable month - on - month this week, with some areas possibly rising slightly [11]. - Supply Side: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase, still 3.7% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, there is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve next year's supply under the background of no obvious losses this year. In the next few months, focus on the implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. However, the continuous weight - reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - release of supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure at that time. Pay attention to where this wave of weight goes and whether there will be inventory accumulation at the end of the third quarter. In the short - term data, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, the weight of large - scale farms has been continuously declining, and the current market shows a state of increasing sales volume by reducing prices [11]. - Demand Side: The overall consumption environment is weak, and the change in consumption habits is unfavorable for pork consumption. Year - on - year, pork consumption has been declining, but month - on - month, pay attention to the pulse effect of festival consumption on pig prices [11]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, recommend buying on dips for the November and January contracts with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months, with the core driving logic being inventory reduction, hoarding, and the fat - standard price difference. For arbitrage, recommend a 3 - 5 reverse spread with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months, with the core driving logic being policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: Last week, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly and then fell, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The average weight remained stable during the week, with local weight - reduction continuing and some signs of hoarding and reluctant selling. The fat - standard price difference rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume increased month - on - month. The price trends in different regions vary. The price is expected to be stable month - on - month this week, with some areas possibly rising slightly [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a bottom - out rebound in the later part of August. The month - spread fluctuates within a narrow range [25]. - Piglet and Sow Prices: The report provides historical price trends of piglets, reserve sows, culled sows, and the ratio of culled sows to live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [27][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase, still 3.7% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction from the policy side, and in the next few months, focus on the implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. However, the continuous weight - reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - release of supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure at that time. Pay attention to inventory accumulation at the end of the third quarter. The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases, and pay attention to its persistence. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and pay attention to the trend of the fat - standard price difference. The short - term data shows that the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, the weight of large - scale farms has been continuously declining, and the market shows a state of increasing sales volume by reducing prices [42][45][49]. - Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month: The report provides historical data on pork imports and pig feed month - on - month changes, but no specific analysis is given [51]. - Secondary Fattening and Pigsty Utilization: The report provides data on the proportion of secondary - fattening sales and pigsty utilization rate, but no specific analysis is given [53]. 3.4 Demand Side - The overall consumption environment is weak, and the change in consumption habits is unfavorable for pork consumption. Year - on - year, pork consumption has been declining, but month - on - month, pay attention to the pulse effect of festival consumption on pig prices. The report also provides data on slaughter volume, slaughtering start - up rate, gross profit, price - spread, fresh - frozen price difference, and fresh - sales rate, but no in - depth analysis is given [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the overall cost is relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of the low cost, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [74].