橡胶周报：胶价震荡偏强-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices due to significant price drops suppressing supply and the current bottom - building stage. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices may have risen too much and need to consolidate through oscillations. There is a risk of prices rising and then falling back [11]. - The market logic for bulls is the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year. The main reason for bears is the dull demand reality and the expected decline in demand due to the US tariff - increasing policy [13]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and decrease processing profit. The maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the 20250704 monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a huge impact and was a significant macro - bullish factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price increase in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices, but in the short term, beware of the risk of prices rising and then falling back. After the sharp decline on August 2, 2025, the outlook for rubber prices is not pessimistic [11]. - The key points of rubber RU: prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. Pay attention to the overall rise - fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies in the short term. The market logic for bulls and bears is different, and it is recommended to focus on the long - RU2601 and short - RU2511 spread trading strategy [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [26]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, etc. are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [42]. - Black commodities and rubber follow a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [45]. 3.4 Cost Side - The general view on the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [53]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, and vice versa [53]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate data of tire factories shows that the full - steel tire operating rate is 63.09% (2.09%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but is expected to decline slightly in the future [63][66]. 3.6 Supply Side - Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are still significant differences in the mid - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase in production. There are also market expectations of a small - scale rubber purchasing and storage plan [13]. - In May 2025, rubber production and export data showed different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions [104][105].