锡周报：短期供需双弱，锡价维持震荡走势-20250816

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated. In terms of supply, the slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand continued to limit import supplements. Yunnan faced intensified raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi had a broken scrap - tin supply chain. In terms of demand, it was the off - season, with traditional consumption areas weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, it had limited impact on overall demand. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly. Overall, short - term supply was tight and demand was weak, but as Myanmar's resumption of production advanced, tin prices were expected to fluctuate. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices was 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin prices was 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost Side: The slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand restricted imports. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41%. The mineral exploitation license in the Wa State of Myanmar had been approved, and significant recovery of tin ore supply was expected in the fourth quarter [12] - Supply Side: Yunnan was constrained by raw - material shortages, with smelters' tin ore inventories generally less than 30 days. High competition for procurement led to high processing costs for low - grade ores, and rising power costs dampened production willingness. Some manufacturers planned maintenance. Jiangxi faced a broken scrap - tin supply chain, with the secondary material circulation volume down over 30% year - on - year, restricting refined production capacity. In July 2025, refined tin output was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.95% [12] - Demand Side: Off - season consumption was poor. Downstream factories' orders were low, and they were cautious about restocking tin raw materials. In different fields, photovoltaic tin - bar orders in East China declined after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, and the production schedule of home - appliance enterprises in July decreased significantly. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, and the market was wait - and - see. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry was relatively stable [12] - Summary: Short - term supply was tight, demand was weak, and tin prices were expected to fluctuate, with domestic tin prices in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and LME tin prices in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market No other content except for the source information and some data charts is provided, so no further summary can be made. 3. Cost Side - Tin ore supply was tight in the short term, and processing fees remained low [26] 4. Supply Side - The report presents multiple charts related to domestic refined tin production, recycled tin production, production and operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi, export and import profits, domestic and Indonesian import and export volumes, etc., but no additional written summary content is provided. 5. Demand Side - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [45] - PC and Smartphone: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption remained sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units in 2025. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated consumer electronics growth, but the demand recovery was limited [48][51] - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [54] - Home Appliance: The first five months saw a near - 100% year - on - year increase in photovoltaic installation due to the installation rush, but the actual impact was less than expected [61] - Other Fields: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while PVC production increased slightly in the first half of the year [64] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2023 to June 2025, including refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption [69]