不锈钢周报：延续去库趋势，情绪趋向谨慎-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current stainless - steel price shows a range - bound oscillatory trend, and market sentiment is easily affected by policy factors. Considering the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that the spot prices of 304 hot - and cold - rolled stainless steel will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12][13]. - The market trading atmosphere was generally weak this week. Only at the beginning of the week, driven by a short - term rise in futures prices, did market inquiries and trading show a slight improvement. As the market trend oscillated downward, the market's wait - and - see sentiment significantly increased, and the procurement pace of traders and downstream industries slowed down notably. High - priced resources were particularly difficult to sell [12][13]. - On the supply side, leading steel mills continued to use the goods - distribution model to regulate market supply, effectively avoiding the impact of concentrated arrivals on the market. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand. The actual steel demand in major downstream industries such as building decoration and home appliance manufacturing is relatively weak. Most end - users maintain a cautious procurement strategy, with no signs of concentrated restocking or inventory hoarding, and a strong resistance to high - priced resources. Market demand shows no obvious signs of improvement [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: - Futures and Spot Market: On August 15th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.19% [12][19]. - Supply: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in July reached 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cold - rolled output of 300 - series stainless steel in July was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [12][30][33]. - Demand: From January to July 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%. In July alone, the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was +14.4% [12][44][47]. - Inventory: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0789 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. The inventory of futures warrants this week was 103,300 tons, an increase of 294 tons from last week. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel this week were 198,900 tons, 644,500 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.99% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 59,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58.02%, and the unloading volume was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.66% [12][55][58]. - Cost: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 930 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently operating at a loss of 101 yuan/nickel [12][66]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi on August 15th was 13,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.19% [12][19]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about 210 yuan lower than the main contract (-7), and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 110 yuan lower than the main contract (+3). The market position was 245,091 lots, a month - on - month increase of 3.91% [22]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 75 (-10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 135 (-25) [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48% [12][30]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in July reached 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cold - rolled output of 300 - series stainless steel in July was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [12][33]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia in July was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [36]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [39]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to July 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%. In July alone, the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40% [12][44]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was +14.4% [12][47]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In July, the automobile sales volume was 2.5934 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66% [50]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0789 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. The inventory of futures warrants this week was 103,300 tons, an increase of 294 tons from last week [12][55]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel this week were 198,900 tons, 644,500 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.99% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 59,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58.02%, and the unloading volume was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.66% [12][58]. 3.6. Cost Side - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the quoted price for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 10.9516 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.98% [63]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 930 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently operating at a loss of 101 yuan/nickel [66]. - This week, the quoted price for chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, the same as last week. The quoted price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,000 yuan/50 - base tons, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons from last week. In July, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 801,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.38% [69]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 665 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of - 4.83%. As downstream consumption sentiment warms up, the situation of steel mills has improved [72].