锰硅周报：短期继续建议投机资金以观望为主，产业择机套保-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [1][81]. - The "anti - involution" policy has led to price fluctuations in related commodities, but the market is still in a state of emotional disturbance. Eventually, prices will move towards the fundamentals, which will take time [15][95]. - In the future, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, as well as the entire black sector, are likely to face a situation of weakening marginal demand. It is necessary to focus on changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state will introduce relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level. Manganese silicon production profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 298 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 258 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 476 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon production cost increases slightly, with Inner Mongolia at 6098 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6376 yuan/ton. Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week. Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week [14]. - Strategy: Given the current market situation of commodity price fluctuations and emotional disturbances, speculative funds are advised to wait and see, while industrial players can choose the right time for hedging [15]. 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 298 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is - 258 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [25]. - Production cost: Inner Mongolia is 6098 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 6058 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is 6376 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. - Manganese ore imports: In June, manganese ore imports were 268 tons, down 25.95 tons month - on - month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative imports were 1446 tons, up 48.52 tons or 3.47% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 9, 2025, manganese ore port inventory is 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons week - on - week [36]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week, with an accelerating increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is down about 4.34% year - on - year. In July 2025, manganese silicon output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 32.51 tons or 5.39% year - on - year [44]. - Demand: Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. As of this week, cumulative weekly output is down about 2.57% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. Weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.54 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week [14][58]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [69]. - Sample enterprise inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 15.88 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [72]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon steel mill inventory is 14.24 days, down 1.25 days month - on - month, at a historical low [75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the manganese silicon futures price maintained a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.26%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, but the daily K - line is loose, disorderly, and the trend is weakening. Short - term support levels at around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level. Ferrosilicon production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The production cost of the main producing areas is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year [94]. - Strategy: Similar to manganese silicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [95]. 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - Production cost: The main producing areas' production cost is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke small material is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year. In July 2025, ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 0.56 tons or 0.18% year - on - year [116]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year [94]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period [139]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon steel mill inventory is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days month - on - month, at a historical low [142]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the ferrosilicon futures price continued to show a wide - range volatile trend, with a slightly narrowed fluctuation range and a weekly decline of 10 yuan/ton or - 0.17%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, and the daily K - line is loose and disorderly. Short - term support levels at around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [148].