尿素周报：矛盾不突出，价格持续收敛-20250816

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern. The downward movement of the futures price is supported by cost, while the upward space is restricted by supply and weakening demand. Price fluctuations are continuously narrowing, and the implied volatility of options has returned to historical lows. Although the current reality is still weak, the enterprise profit is at a low level, so the downward space is limited. If there is further positive news, the price is expected to break out of the trading range. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Price fluctuations gradually narrowed, and the price closed slightly lower throughout the week. The actual agricultural demand weakened, the compound fertilizer start - up rate increased, and the export volume was moderate. The overall performance was average, the basis of the futures market was weak, and the inter - month spread was at a low level in the same period. It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern, and the further downward space is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of effective positive factors for an upward movement [12]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The domestic enterprise start - up rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.24%, and it was at a medium - to - high level year - on - year. The daily output was 19.12 tons, and it is expected to rise again later [12]. - Demand: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. Due to the production of autumn fertilizers, the start - up rate is expected to further increase in the short term. The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the fixed - bed production was in the red. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export is progressing moderately, showing a rather dull performance [12]. - Valuation: The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - to - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was low [12]. - Inventory: The port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the inventory was at a high level year - on - year due to weakening demand [12]. - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts, including the seasonal chart of the 01 contract basis, the spot market price chart of Shandong urea, the 1 - 5 spread chart of urea, the term structure chart of urea, the position and trading volume charts of the 01 contract and the weighted position and trading volume charts of urea, to show the price, spread, position, and trading volume changes in the futures and spot markets [20][21][23][27]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the cost support will gradually strengthen. The report shows the profit charts of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - head production [30]. - Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons [12]. - The report also includes inventory change projection charts, such as the end - of - month enterprise inventory projection chart and the port inventory and export volume chart [37][38]. 3.4. Supply Side - Urea Production Capacity: It shows the urea production capacity chart and the planned production - start device chart. Multiple enterprises have planned new production capacity from 2024 to 2025 [41][43]. - Urea Start - up Rate: The start - up rate has fluctuated and declined. The report lists the start - up rate chart, the planned maintenance and long - shut - down device information of enterprises, and also includes the main production area enterprise advance order and monthly output projection charts [45][46][48][50]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption Projection: It shows the monthly consumption chart and the downstream demand proportion chart [53][54]. - Compound Fertilizer: The start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. The report includes the compound fertilizer start - up rate, production profit, and price ratio charts with urea [56][57]. - Melamine: It shows the melamine start - up rate, profit, and export volume charts [61][64]. - Terminal Demand: It includes the export volume chart of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, the housing start - up and completion chart, and the 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction area chart [69][70][74]. - Export: The export profit was relatively high. The report shows the urea export volume, profit, export region, and sea - freight charts, as well as the export volume charts of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers [80][81][87][90]. 3.6. Options - Related - The report presents the position, trading volume, position PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility charts of urea options [94][95][97][99][105]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industrial chain chart, the research framework analysis mind - map chart, and the urea industrial chain characteristic chart. It also provides a seasonal overview of domestic and international crop fertilizer demand [107][108][111][113][116].