股指周报：持续上涨后，波动加剧概率大-20250816

1. Investment Rating of the Report No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and positive momentum of the capital market, confirming the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market [10][11]. - The A - share market has remained resilient recently. After continuous index increases, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify, but the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi magazine; the central bank released the Q2 2025 China Monetary Policy Report; the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges monitored abnormal stocks; southbound funds had a record - high net purchase of HK$35.876 billion [10]. - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In July, industrial added - value grew 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased 1.6%, and retail sales rose 3.7%. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, and non - manufacturing PMI to 50.1%. M1 and M2 growth rates increased. Social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, with government bonds and bill financing driving growth, but overall performance was below expectations. Exports rose 7.2% and imports 4.1% [10]. - Interest Rate and Credit Environment: The 10 - year Treasury and credit bond interest rates continued to decline, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity was relatively loose [10]. - Trading Strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is moderately low and IM has long - term discounts. Hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle has started, and high - dividend assets may benefit [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - Spot Market: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 3.46%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 11634.67, up 5.68%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14]. - Futures Market: All futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed price increases and different levels of trading volume [15]. 3.3. Economy and Corporate Earnings - Economy: Q2 2025 GDP actual growth rate was 5.2%. In July, manufacturing PMI was 49.3%. Consumption growth rate was 3.7% and continued to decline. Exports in US dollars increased 7.2%. Investment growth rate was 1.6%, with manufacturing, real - estate, and infrastructure investment growth rates decreasing [32][35][38]. - Corporate Earnings: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of non - financial listed companies in the A - share market slightly declined compared to Q4 but was higher than Q3 of last year. Operating net cash flow increased year - on - year, mainly due to inventory reduction [41]. 3.4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest Rate: The 10 - year Treasury bond and 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rates showed a downward trend. Liquidity was relatively loose, and the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year bonds was presented in the report [44][49]. - Credit Environment: In July 2025, M1 growth rate was 5.6% and M2 was 8.8%. Social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bonds and bill financing, while resident and corporate credit data declined significantly year - on - year [54]. 3.5. Capital Flows - Inflow: This week, new shares of equity - oriented funds were 59.47 million, and the net margin purchase was 4.5691 billion [60][63]. - Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 503.4 million, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [66]. 3.6. Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai 50 was 11.52, the CSI 300 was 13.46, the CSI 500 was 31.57, and the CSI 1000 was 43.79. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of the Shanghai 50 was 1.27, the CSI 300 was 1.42, the CSI 500 was 2.13, and the CSI 1000 was 2.43 [70].