从险资举牌看AH红利配置走向：AH红利资产的定价模式探索系列（II）

Group 1: Dividend Investment Insights - Dividend investment arises from the pursuit of safety margins in uncertain macroeconomic environments, especially as asset returns decline during economic plateau phases[2] - For equity investors, constructing a "safety margin" relies on selecting high-yield assets or "ticket assets" in undervalued areas[2] - For fixed-income investors, yield elasticity comes from the "+" in "fixed income +", traditionally achieved by increasing equity assets, including relatively low-volatility "ticket assets"[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Stock Selection - Since August 2025, insurance companies have intensified their stock purchases, with 28 instances recorded this year, including 20 in H-shares[18][20] - The pricing formula for dividend assets follows: [Dividend Yield + Earnings Certainty] ≥ [Long-term Bond Yield + Risk Premium], with market risk preference being a core influencing factor[6] - Traditional stable dividend sectors like utilities and banks maintain relatively high dividend yields, with banks showing lower EPS volatility compared to utilities[25] Group 3: Sector Performance and Rotation - The high-dividend sector has experienced rotation, with coal dividends leading in 2021, followed by operators in late 2022, and a resurgence of coal, highways, and hydropower in 2023[7][49] - By 2025, traditional dividend assets have shown a decline, with banks maintaining relative returns, while the demand for high-dividend quality and Hong Kong stocks has increased[60] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) theme is expected to benefit cyclical dividend assets, with static dividend yield representing an important valuation safety dimension[62]