谁在“做多”，谁仍“畏高”？

Core Insights - The report indicates that since the tariff impact in April, the A-share market has entered a four-month trend, showing a gradual bull market pattern. Recent market activity has intensified, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through significant resistance levels of 3674 and 3700, and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1] Market Participation - Retail investors are beginning to enter the market, but there remains a prevailing "fear of heights" sentiment, leading to low overall participation [2][4] - The "scar effect" from previous market adjustments has dampened retail investors' willingness to engage in A-shares through indirect channels [3] Retail Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are hesitant about the current bull market, primarily due to the need for stronger signals to confirm the trend. They may require more sustained and robust price increases to feel confident [4] - Despite some retail investors increasing their positions, the overall momentum is limited. Recent weeks have seen a net inflow of 113.4 billion yuan from small trades, but this is still significantly lower than the average of 131.2 billion yuan per week in the first quarter [5] Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that speculative trading activity has reached a new high for the year, with an average daily trading amount of 30.8 billion yuan in the first half of August [5] - Leveraged funds have seen continuous net inflows since late June, accumulating over 200 billion yuan, pushing the margin balance above 2 trillion yuan [5] - Private equity has expanded significantly, with the number of registered products reaching 2448, accounting for 45% of all private equity securities products [5] Future Outlook - The report suggests that FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) funds are likely to gradually enter the market, driven by the trend of asset migration among residents [6][8] - Institutional funds, including foreign and insurance capital, are expected to increase their inflows into the market [7][8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as consumer electronics, autonomous driving, domestic computing power, AI software, new consumption, and thematic investments like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [8]