油脂油料周报：政策影响加剧，菜油冲高回落-20250817

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, international soybean prices are affected by factors such as US policies, weather, and USDA reports, showing a volatile upward trend. Domestic soybean meal prices are also influenced by international prices and domestic supply and demand, with the price center rising. In the oil market, international oil prices are differentiated, with US soybean oil falling and Malaysian palm oil rising. Domestic oil prices are generally rising, but there are differences among varieties [6][59]. - Looking ahead to the next week, in the protein meal market, international soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestic soybean meal is also expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. In the oil market, international US soybean oil is volatile and domestic oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [112][113]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to expectations of improved US soybean export demand and hot and dry weather in some Midwestern farmlands, as well as the adjustment of positions by grain traders before the USDA report. The subsequent fall was due to profit - taking by investors and concerns about export demand. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal market also first rose and then fell, with the price center rising [6]. 2. Export and Supply - related Data - US soybean export inspection volume exceeded market expectations, with a 18% decrease compared to the previous week but a 48% increase compared to the same period last year. As of August 7, 2025, the export inspection volume was 518,066 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 48,367,647 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [11]. 3. Weather and Planting Progress - In North America, most parts of the US are dry, which is beneficial for field operations but reduces soil moisture. Some areas have significant rainfall and strong thunderstorms. In Canada's prairie region, wet weather increases soil moisture but affects the early stage of small - grain cereal harvesting [26][30]. - As of August 10, 2025, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [22]. 4. Global Supply and Demand - For the US 2025/26 soybean season, the planting area is estimated to be 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres from July. The yield is estimated to be 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease from July. The ending inventory is estimated to be 290 million bushels, a decrease from July. For the 2024/25 season, the export and crush expectations of US soybeans are increased, and the ending inventory of US soybean oil is increased. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from July, and the ending inventory is decreased by 1.17 million tons to 124 million tons [32][33]. 5. Domestic Market Indicators - Domestic spot and futures crushing profits have declined. As of the end of this week, the import soybean inventory at ports is about 6.8435 million tons, and the theoretical crush days are 19 days. The domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate is 62.56%, an increase of 1.25% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week [40][45]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, international oil prices were differentiated. US soybean oil oscillated downward due to factors such as the decline of international crude oil, the fall of US soybeans, and uncertain biodiesel policies. Malaysian palm oil oscillated upward, but there are doubts about the sustainability of its export growth. Domestic oils generally rose, with soybean oil rising due to increased import costs, palm oil following Malaysian palm oil, and rapeseed oil first rising due to policies and then falling [59]. 2. International Oil - related Information - Indonesia may postpone the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan, which may ease concerns about palm oil supply shortages. From August 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 23.3% - 23.7% compared to the same period in July. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, exports were 1.309 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.1132 million tons [61][62]. 3. Domestic Oil - related Indicators - As of the 32nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6066 million tons, a decrease of 3400 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3079 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons; edible palm oil inventory was 526,200 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 772,500 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [78]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For protein meals, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled. For oils, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and palm oil are bullish, and the short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, with medium - term indicators bullish and long - term indicators entangled [112]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein meals: Internationally, US soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestically, the soybean oil mill's startup rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory may decrease steadily. The market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. - Oils: Internationally, US soybean oil is volatile due to lack of positive news. Malaysian palm oil has pressure at around 4500. Domestically, oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [113].