国信期货热卷周报：短线回落，有望再次上行-20250817

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils remained strong this week. Building material demand entered the seasonal off-season and declined month-on-month. Plates such as hot-rolled coils and medium-thick plates performed strongly. Total demand declined marginally, and inventory started to accumulate in the off-season. The supply-demand situation of hot-rolled coils had few contradictions. Affected by factors such as billet exports, hot metal production decreased month-on-month but remained at a relatively high level year-on-year, providing some support for costs. - With the ebb of anti-involution speculation, hot-rolled coils declined in the short term. However, the policy side was still advancing, supporting the price bottom, making it difficult for prices to continue to decline. - The operation strategy was to participate on the long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - Hot-rolled coil futures main contract trend: After reaching a high level this week, the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures declined and then fluctuated narrowly in the short term [8]. - Hot-rolled coil spot trend: After the futures rebounded and then declined, the spot price followed [10]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - Hot-rolled coil futures-spot price difference trend: The 01 basis was 24, the 05 basis was 10, and the 10 basis was 18 [14]. - Hot-cold spread: Not detailed in the report 3.3 Part 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Hot-rolled coil profit: The production profit was 251, the 01 contract's on - screen profit was 322, the 05 contract's on - screen profit was 327, and the 10 contract's on - screen profit was 339 [21]. - Hot-rolled coil production: The hot-rolled coil production was 315.59, the cold-rolled production was 86.19, the rebar production was 220.45, and the production of the five major steel products was 871.63 [24]. - Raw materials: Not detailed in the report - Hot-rolled coil inventory: The hot-rolled coil inventory was 357.47, the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.66, the rebar inventory was 587.19, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1415.97 [29]. - Terminal demand: Not detailed in the report - Export: Exports declined month-on-month but remained strong year-on-year [34]. 3.4 Part 4: Market Outlook - The demand for hot-rolled coils remained strong this week, and the supply-demand situation had few contradictions. Although short-term prices declined, policy support made it difficult for prices to continue to fall. The recommended strategy was to participate on the long side [36].