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国信期货纸浆周报:震荡上行,外盘报价提涨-20250817
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-17 02:42

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high. In the later - stage outlook, it is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips as the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons in late August [6][29] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - As of August 14, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5779 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from last week, turning from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4163 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from last week, also turning from a decline to stability [10] - In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [14] - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase [17][29] - In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% compared with June 2024. Inventory in most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [20] - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. As of August 14, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.88 percentage points from last week; that of double - offset paper decreased by 0.50 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 5.34 percentage points; and that of household paper increased by 2.02 percentage points [24] 3. Future Outlook - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase. The destocking rhythm has accelerated recently, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of port inventory [29] - In the new round of external quotations, the price of Indonesian hardwood pulp has increased. Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the Asian market for bleached eucalyptus hardwood pulp in August 2025, and the Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp price also increased by 20 dollars/ton. Supported by the external cost, there is a certain sentiment of hoarding and price - holding among industry players, but the downstream paper mills have limited acceptance due to pressure on profit margins, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices [29] - Starting from late August, the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons, and the demand and purchasing sentiment may change. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [29]