玉米周报：新粮上市将近，玉米延续弱势-20250817

Report Title - New Grain Harvest Approaching, Corn Continues to Weaken - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report, August 17, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the overall corn spot market was weak. In Shandong, the supply was low, and enterprises significantly pressured prices in the first half of the week but with less intensity later, and the spot price stabilized. In Northeast China, it was also weak due to auctions. At the north - south ports, the spot price was relatively strong as inventory continued to decline. The futures price first rose and then fell, with a long upper shadow on the weekly line. The basis weakened slightly, and the C2511 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to the main contract shift. Fundamentally, with the continuation of reserve grain auctions and the approaching new grain harvest, the willingness of grain - holding traders to sell increased, strengthening the supply pressure. On the demand side, although feed production increased, policies to reduce pig production capacity and average weight suppressed feed demand expectations. Meanwhile, wheat still had an advantage in substituting for corn, and the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn was restricted. Additionally, the profit of the deep - processing sector remained poor, negatively affecting consumption. Overall, the later corn supply - demand situation will tend to be loose, and the market will maintain a pattern of oscillating to find the bottom. The operation should be based on a bearish - oscillating mindset [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook 1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided 1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - The overall corn spot market was weak last week. In Shandong, the supply was low, enterprises pressured prices in the first half of the week and with less intensity later, and the spot price stabilized. In Northeast China, it was weak due to auctions, and at the north - south ports, the spot price was relatively strong as inventory declined [7] 1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional价差 - Not provided 1.4 Corn Selling Progress - Not provided 1.5 Corn Import - Not provided 1.6 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand - Although feed production increased, policies to reduce pig production capacity and average weight suppressed feed demand expectations, and the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn was restricted [7] 1.7 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand: Feed Output - Not provided 1.8 Deep - processing Demand - The profit of the deep - processing sector remained poor, negatively affecting consumption [7] 1.9 Substitutes - Wheat still had an advantage in substituting for corn, restricting the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn [7] 1.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided 2. International Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided 2.2 Corn Starch Spot - A table shows the price data of corn starch spot from August 1st to August 14th, including different price levels such as the lowest, highest, etc. [89] 2.3 Corn - Starch Price Difference - Not provided 2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided 2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided 2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided 3. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided 3.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided 3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided 3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided 4. Corn Starch Market Dynamics - Not provided Weather Forecast - In the next 10 days (August 15 - 24), cumulative precipitation in areas such as eastern North China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, northern Shandong, southern Jiangnan, South China, most of Southwest China, and southern Tibet will be 50 - 80 mm. In the next 11 - 14 days (August 25 - 28), the main rainfall areas will be in eastern North China, central and southern Northeast China, southern South China, Yunnan, western Sichuan Basin, and southeastern Tibet, with cumulative precipitation of 20 - 40 mm and locally over 50 mm. Precipitation in these areas will be 30% - 70% more than the same period of the year, and locally twice as much [36]