白糖周报：郑糖反弹后转为震荡，现货回升-20250817

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded in the first half - week, following the strong bullish sentiment of the overall commodities. However, the pressure above 5650 increased significantly, and then it turned to consolidation. The upcoming release of July's imported sugar data is expected to show 700,000 tons, much higher than last year's 420,000 tons. Although the large - scale listing of refined sugar suppresses sugar prices, the rising Zhengzhou sugar price this week led to an increase in spot prices and accelerated inventory clearance, limiting the downside of sugar prices [49]. - Internationally, the market is starting to focus on Brazil's annual production data, with estimates for the 2025/26 season tending to be below 40 million tons. Demand has improved, as Pakistan plans to import 500,000 tons of sugar, has already purchased 55,000 tons, and is holding a new tender for 200,000 tons of refined sugar. The downward adjustment of Brazil's production estimate and improved demand support international sugar prices [49]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Movement: Zhengzhou sugar rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. ICE sugar recovered from a low, with a weekly increase of 1.91% [8]. - Spot Price and Basis Trend: No specific analysis content is provided, only the data source is mentioned [12][13]. - Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan: No specific analysis content is provided, only the data source is mentioned [15][16]. - Sugar Import Situation: In June, imports were 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,539 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,769 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,580 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,822 yuan per ton [20]. - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [24]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,284, a decrease of 1,331 from the previous week. There were 17,284 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [28]. - Brazil's Production Progress: In the first half of July, the cumulative crushing volume was 256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%, and the sugar production was 1.5655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [29]. - Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.58%, compared with 48.89% in the same period last year [36]. - Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports: Brazil's sugar exports in July were 3.5937 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [41]. - International Main Production Area Weather Conditions: Rainfall in Brazil's main production areas decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation [45]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic Market: Zhengzhou sugar will continue to be affected by factors such as imported sugar volume and inventory clearance. The large - scale listing of refined sugar suppresses prices, but the increase in spot prices and accelerated inventory clearance limit the downside [49]. - International Market: Brazil's production estimate and international demand will affect international sugar prices. The downward adjustment of Brazil's production estimate and improved demand provide support [49].