国信期货有色(镍)周报:底部区间,持续震荡-20250817
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-17 02:41
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is currently at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. In the industry, refined nickel still has an oversupply situation. The nickel ore market is calm with a relatively loose supply. The price of nickel sulfate is weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season with weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of domestic and foreign nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [6][7] 3.2 Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Upstream: Chinese Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the historical data of the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines to China, with the unit of tons [9][10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trends of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [12][13] 3.2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trends of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [14][15] 3.2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of tons, and the Fubao price trends of 8 - 12% ferronickel during the same period, with the price unit of yuan/nickel [16][17] 3.2.5 Downstream: Stainless - steel Price - Displays the closing price trends of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [18][19] 3.2.6 Downstream: Stainless - steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume trends of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of lots [20][21] 3.2.7 Downstream: Wuxi Stainless - steel Inventory - Shows the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of tons [22][23] 3.2.8 Downstream: Power and Energy - storage Battery Production - Displays the monthly production volume trends of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy - storage batteries in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [24][25] 3.2.9 Downstream: New - energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume trends of new - energy vehicles in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [27][28] 3.3 Part 3: Market Outlook - In the US, on the 12th local time, the US Department of Labor announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year. The core CPI in July increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than 2.9% in June and far above the Fed's 2% target; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Wednesday that he believes there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 7.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.1%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 3.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 55.2%. In China, on July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, stating that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, and implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [32]