国信期货生猪周报：现货旺季不旺，盘面继续挤升水-20250817

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the live hog spot market showed a weak rebound in a volatile manner. Supported by farmers' price - holding and seasonal consumption, the futures market ended the previous week's rebound and declined, with LH11 and LH01 performing weaker. The basis strengthened slightly, but the spot price in the Southwest region was still at a discount of about 400 yuan/ton to LH09. - Based on the statistics of piglet birth data of sample enterprises by different institutions, the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to increase in the later stage. The month - on - month growth rate of fattening pig feed sales is similar to that in the same period of 2023 and 2024. Referring to the supply seasonality in the past two years, the supply pressure will still be high in the later stage. - In terms of demand, the secondary fattening market remains sluggish, while consumption will strengthen seasonally in the later stage. Overall, both supply and demand will increase in the later stage, but considering the past few years, the peak season has limited impact on price increases. Currently, the futures price has a premium over the spot price, and it is more likely to move closer to the spot price in the future. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bearish - biased trading strategy in a volatile market [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market had a weak rebound in the past week, while the futures market declined. The basis strengthened slightly, and the supply pressure will be high later with seasonal consumption growth. The futures price is likely to move closer to the spot price, and a bearish - biased trading strategy is recommended [7]. 65. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops: At the national level, no temporary reserve purchase will be initiated when the third - level early warning of excessive price drops is issued; it will be considered when the second - level early warning is issued; and it will be initiated when the first - level early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national approach. - In case of excessive price increases: For the central frozen pork reserve release, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, the reserve release will be initiated when the second - level early warning of excessive price increases is issued and the release intensity will be increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal disease risks, the price increase tolerance will be raised, and after the first - level early warning is issued, the release will be mainly concentrated in key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release initiation conditions, which should not be higher than the central level [68].