美国通胀风险越来越难对市场构成趋势性压制

Inflation Trends - The effective tariff rate for U.S. imports rose to 9.1% as of June 2025, with a cumulative increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year[5] - Tariffs are expected to lead to an approximate 2.8% increase in U.S. goods prices based on a thumb rule calculation[40] - Core goods inflation is primarily driven by high import dependency and low inventory levels, particularly in categories like furniture and apparel[20] Economic Implications - The direct impact of tariffs results in about 50% of the tariff increase being passed on to consumer prices[24] - The indirect impact on domestic goods prices has shown signs of slowing, indicating limited transmission of tariff effects to local products[27] - Despite a rebound in goods inflation, core service inflation remains the largest contributor to nominal inflation, with a contribution of 82% to the CPI growth in June 2025[47] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to continue rebounding in the second half of 2025, with a peak CPI growth rate of approximately 3.2% by December 2025, followed by a decline to around 2.3% by mid-2026[56] - The market's consensus on inflation risks appears to be overestimated, particularly for mid-term projections, suggesting potential for further easing in monetary policy[61] - Political pressures may further influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially leading to increased easing in 2026[64]