8月USDA大幅调高美国玉米产量，调低大豆产量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Views - The USDA significantly raised the corn production forecast for the U.S. while lowering the soybean production forecast [1][15] - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.5 percentage points this week [11] Summary by Sections Global Supply and Demand Adjustments - Global wheat production for the 2025/26 season was lowered by 1.65 million tons to 807 million tons, with consumption down by 1.1 million tons to 809.5 million tons [2][16] - Global rice production was raised by 200,000 tons to 541.5 million tons, with consumption up by 400,000 tons to 542 million tons [2][16] - Global corn production was increased by 24.92 million tons to 1.28886 billion tons, primarily due to a 26.33 million ton increase in U.S. corn production [2][16] - Global soybean production was decreased by 1.3 million tons to 426 million tons, mainly due to declines in the U.S. and Serbia [2][16] Domestic Supply and Demand Forecasts - China's corn supply and demand forecast remains unchanged from last month, with overall supply and demand in a tight balance [3][17] - The soybean supply and demand forecast for China also remains unchanged, with favorable conditions for growth in major production areas [3][17] Livestock and Poultry - The national price for lean pigs is 13.74 CNY/kg, down 0.4% from last week, indicating a relatively low valuation [18][19] - White feather chicken prices increased to 7.2 CNY/kg, up 0.8% from last week, while chicken product prices decreased to 8.8 CNY/kg, down 0.6% [18][32] - The price of meat chicken chicks rose to 3.58 CNY each, up 14.4% from last week [18][28] Agricultural Products and Planting - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [18] - The agricultural sector is experiencing increased price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller firms due to their advantages [18] Price Trends - Domestic corn spot price is 2394.12 CNY/ton, down 0.1% from last week [46] - Domestic soybean spot price is 3952.63 CNY/ton, up 0.7% from last week [56] - Domestic wheat spot price is 2438.11 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase from last week [51]